Brexit Deal

GeoffCapes

GeoffCapes

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Wattie said:
How about the economy would tank if leave won at the referendum.........does it get any bigger than that?

www.theguardian.com

Brexit Armageddon was a terrifying vision – but it simply hasn’t happened | Larry Elliott

Project Fear predicted economic meltdown if Britain voted leave, so where are the devastated high streets, job losses and crashing markets?
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...

First things first. The article was from 2016. That said there are some points which are worth addressing.

With increased costs (mainly caused by the fall in value of the pound) the effects take time to come to fruition. Tightening of belts and finances, until they get to a point where they can be tightened no longer.
The effects are what we are seeing in the high street, M&S falling profits, Jamie Olivers restaurants failing etc etc etc.
In industry you have British Steel (or whatever you want to call them), car manufacturers scaling back production. The list goes on.

People will argue that the stock market has been up since the vote, however, a closer look at the companies in the FTSE 100 will show that 98% of the top 100 companies, make most of their money OUTSIDE of the United Kingdom.
In essence, Brexit will have little effect on them. This paints a false picture of the economy.

Spending has apparently gone up. However, it is fair to say most of this is on credit cards are UK personal debt has skyrocketed to levels much higher than the last recession when there was a run on the banks.
This level of debt is unsustainable. And there will be some very painful times ahead unless something is done about personal debt levels. Which will mean reducing interest rates. Hang on, we can't. at 0.5% they're pretty much as low as you're going to get.

So the article stating consumer spending will reduce is false. The opposite has happened. People want to sustain the level of living they had, when things were cheaper.
But they're doing that with credit.

If we do honour the vote and leave then there will be a lot of financial pain ahead for some. Probably most painfully for those on the lowest incomes.
 
Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
GeoffCapes said:
Well, lets get things balanced. The cost of Brexit thus far has been put at £66 billion. With 60 million (or thereabouts in the country) I'd say Brexit has cost £1,100 each so far.
Multiply by 2.4 (average UK family size) You're looking at £2,640.
And that is without the direct costs like food and fuel going up. I'd be willing to guess that the £4,300 isn't too far away.
Click to expand...
Terrible eh, just think how much money could have been saved if remainers had simply accepted the result.
Instead, We haven’t even started leaving yet.
 
MaserCoupe

MaserCoupe

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564
GeoffCapes said:
First things first. The article was from 2016. That said there are some points which are worth addressing.

With increased costs (mainly caused by the fall in value of the pound) the effects take time to come to fruition. Tightening of belts and finances, until they get to a point where they can be tightened no longer.
The effects are what we are seeing in the high street, M&S falling profits, Jamie Olivers restaurants failing etc etc etc.
In industry you have British Steel (or whatever you want to call them), car manufacturers scaling back production. The list goes on.

People will argue that the stock market has been up since the vote, however, a closer look at the companies in the FTSE 100 will show that 98% of the top 100 companies, make most of their money OUTSIDE of the United Kingdom.
In essence, Brexit will have little effect on them. This paints a false picture of the economy.

Spending has apparently gone up. However, it is fair to say most of this is on credit cards are UK personal debt has skyrocketed to levels much higher than the last recession when there was a run on the banks.
This level of debt is unsustainable. And there will be some very painful times ahead unless something is done about personal debt levels. Which will mean reducing interest rates. Hang on, we can't. at 0.5% they're pretty much as low as you're going to get.

So the article stating consumer spending will reduce is false. The opposite has happened. People want to sustain the level of living they had, when things were cheaper.
But they're doing that with credit.

If we do honour the vote and leave then there will be a lot of financial pain ahead for some. Probably most painfully for those on the lowest incomes.
Click to expand...
That’s pretty spot on and the short positive bump in the economy was in part to the U.K. stockpiling in the event of a no deal Brexit.
 
Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
MaserCoupe said:
The economy didn’t tank because the Bank of England put specific measures in place to prevent its own predictions. The day after the referendum it was Mark Carney who said we would be ok because he’d put measures in place to prevent and safeguard our economy. And what did our bovine Brexiteers like Boris, Mogg and others in the ERG do...they give him a load of flak claiming he can’t be trusted. I’d say he’s more patriotic than the load of them combined. Then let’s Not forget Farage getting Donnie Trump to tell us how great and wonderful Brexit is. :D:lol2::lol::lol2: Brexit now is simply an exercise in managing the lied to, that’s all...:D
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Dunno what planet you’re on. They got it wrong and admitted it.
www.theguardian.com

Chief economist of Bank of England admits errors in Brexit forecasting

Andrew Haldane says his profession must adapt to regain the trust of the public, claiming narrow models ignored ‘irrational behaviour’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
MaserCoupe

MaserCoupe

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564
Wattie said:
Terrible eh, just think how much money could have been saved if remainers had simply accepted the result.
Instead, We haven’t even started leaving yet.
Click to expand...
Wattie Are you still angry with remainers? Now why is that then? Are leavers never going to be happy, no matter what? C’mon Surely you’re not now a closet Remainer who’s doubting his leave vote!!! Are you now getting voter remorse....;)
 
2b1ask1

2b1ask1

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GeoffCapes said:
Well, lets get things balanced. The cost of Brexit thus far has been put at £66 billion. With 60 million (or thereabouts in the country) I'd say Brexit has cost £1,100 each so far.
Multiply by 2.4 (average UK family size) You're looking at £2,640.
And that is without the direct costs like food and fuel going up. I'd be willing to guess that the £4,300 isn't too far away.
Click to expand...

The cost of Brexit thus far has been put at £66 billion...

Eeer... Let me guess; Conservative/Remain headline figure Mark?

So lets spend Oh I don't know £13.8m on securing ferries in the event of a no deal; This looks like a reputable company, look at the name 'Seaborne Freight' Oh yes, they obviously know what they are doing, I mean, the name alone says it all, Seaborne, Years of experience sailing the 7 seas, taming the beast of the wild oceans and Freight, obviously moving a few lorries across 22 miles will be a breeze for them!

Oh yes, let's practice 'Operation Stack' oh hang on people, we can't call it that because we have used that name and people might ask why we need to 'practice'; so Operation 'BROCK' Yes that should throw the blighters off the scent. Operation fear more like.

Really Mark, how much of your figure has been from fuelling **** and fear by this incompetent grey witch and her accomplices???
 
2b1ask1

2b1ask1

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Personally Mark I have reduced my personal debt by 30% in the last three years, nothing on credit except my company buying the ULEZ compliant van where the finance is tax deductible anyway so why wouldn't I?
 
E

empzb

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229
MarkMas said:
Well, yes, as I say, if you are a Remainer, you will tend to believe that all Remainer statements are 'Facts', because you are pre-disposed to believe them.

I will pick one 'Project Fact/Fear' example:
The HM Government Treasury (basically part of the Remain campaign), published a 'Fact' that if we left the EU, the UK's GDP would decline by £4,300 per family.
Firstly, this was clearly political spin as nobody has ever expressed GDP in terms of a 'per family' figure before, which is statistical nonsense.
Secondly, while it was billed as an 'expert economic forecast', it was:
(a) just a forecast, based on models, estimates and predictions of the future, but was very much presented as a 'fact';
(b) prepared by economists (and Treasury ones at that) who have a terrible track record in, well, economic forecasting;
(c) prepared (under the direction of George Osborne) using every possible 'worst case' assumption of the outcome of implementing Brexit.
Thirdly, while this headline figure of £4,300 'per family' sounded quite startling, the (unsubstantiated and meaningless) prediction actually represented a tiny percentage of the UK's overall GDP.
Fourthly, I met many Remainers who were not only convinced that this (unsubstantiated and meaningless) prediction actually was a 'fact', but were very confused about what it meant. One normally rational person I know said he voted Remain "because the Government had said that they were going to put up my taxes by £4,300 a year if the referendum voted Leave".
Click to expand...

We haven't left yet though....

As for both not getting arguments it works both ways. This is why a second vote probably makes the most sense with the situation were in now, crippled parliament and no way through.
 
E

empzb

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229
2b1ask1 said:
Personally Mark I have reduced my personal debt by 30% in the last three years, nothing on credit except my company buying the ULEZ compliant van where the finance is tax deductible anyway so why wouldn't I?
Click to expand...

You are not all people. Like you, I've done well these last few years, so have friends. But on the flipside there are people who cant make ends meet. Food bank use at its highest ever. Children going without food during the day when not in school. Teachers buying them equipment. High street in decline (partly down to other things but there are Brexit links to many).

The money wasted on Brexit alone is staggering and could fix most of this. But wait, austerity blah blah blah.

If we had a decent government I'd be more inclined to say **** it and Brexit. But with the ***** we have at the moment I'll happily surrender to eurocrats making laws for us.
 
Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
empzb said:
We haven't left yet though....

As for both not getting arguments it works both ways. This is why a second vote probably makes the most sense with the situation were in now, crippled parliament and no way through.
Click to expand...
I’m up for that, no deal or Mays deal it is then. Respects the first result too.
 
whereskeith

whereskeith

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This cannot continue without ramifications for all of us.
I read that in the USA within 3-5 years total annual debt sold will only be able to pay the interest on what they owe annually...
**** and Fan come to mind....
 
GeoffCapes

GeoffCapes

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14,000
2b1ask1 said:
The cost of Brexit thus far has been put at £66 billion...

Eeer... Let me guess; Conservative/Remain headline figure Mark?

So lets spend Oh I don't know £13.8m on securing ferries in the event of a no deal; This looks like a reputable company, look at the name 'Seaborne Freight' Oh yes, they obviously know what they are doing, I mean, the name alone says it all, Seaborne, Years of experience sailing the 7 seas, taming the beast of the wild oceans and Freight, obviously moving a few lorries across 22 miles will be a breeze for them!

Oh yes, let's practice 'Operation Stack' oh hang on people, we can't call it that because we have used that name and people might ask why we need to 'practice'; so Operation 'BROCK' Yes that should throw the blighters off the scent. Operation fear more like.

Really Mark, how much of your figure has been from fuelling **** and fear by this incompetent grey witch and her accomplices???
Click to expand...

Nope, Standard & Poors came up with that figure. With your daughter working in Insurance she will know how well respected S&P are. I would imagine she has dealings with them quite often.

www.independent.co.uk

Brexit has cost every person in the UK £1,000, on average

Britain has missed out on £550m per week of growth since June 2016 refeerendum, according to Standard & Poor's
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

Operation Brock is still in place on one side of the M20 and will be until at least 31st October. (it's a f*cking nuisance!). That alone has cost £29m and no doubt increasing with every day that passes.
The reason they set it up is because of in the event of a No-Deal Brexit delays will build up. And unlike when Stack is in place, they won't ease the moment the Garlic Eating Surrender Monkeys go back to work as it does with Stack, it will be in place until a deal can be worked out. Any we all know they have no idea how long that will take.

I've already posted the cost to the Kent economy if that happens.
 
2b1ask1

2b1ask1

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I'm long enough to recall Maggie having a surplus; whilst I was not a fan of her, the prospect of the proverbial hitting the fan is squarely at the feet of successive governments since, such wondrous decisions like tying the £ to the Euro and then chucking £ billions at it in 24 hrs to try and salvage the inevitable; how is it possible this didn't expose the lunacy of trying to peg 28/27 nations currencies???
 
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