Are you worried yet.

[CatmanV2]

You can’t hide from reality, take it from me...... more people than expected are dying.

Stay safe

Expected by whom? Unless the ONS are lying, deaths are about or below the 5 year average....

C

 

[Oneball]

Expected by whom? Unless the ONS are lying, deaths are about or below the 5 year average....

C

According to the ONS they’re above the 5 year average.

 

[Scaf]

You can’t hide from reality, take it from me...... more people than expected are dying.

Stay safe

I only know what I know !

 

[CatmanV2]

According to the ONS they’re above the 5 year average.

Well yes. By 670 on 10000 for the week. (Vs the 5 year average) So hardly a large amount
But 4th September they were 1443 down.

You can get the data here:

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes the most up-to-date figures available for deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.ons.gov.uk

C

 

[CatmanV2]

I only know what I know !

The problem with what we 'know' is it's very often wrong. Absolutely no offence is mean. This is simply a statistical observation and perception is reality.

C

 

[Scaf]

The problem with what we 'know' is it's very often wrong. Absolutely no offence is mean. This is simply a statistical observation and perception is reality.

C

Perhaps I am wrong then .......... but my observations are not dependent upon any ONS statistics

 

[CatmanV2]

Perhaps I am wrong then .......... but my observations are not dependent upon any ONS statistics

Totally get it. And again, no insult intended, but this is what humans do. Our gut tells us that what we see is what everyone else experiences....
C

 

[Wack61]

What did I say about stay on course so it looks like they know what they're doing

Warrington was in tier 2 on Monday, Tuesday we were in tier 3 , by this Monday we'll have the most restrictive rules in the country

From medium risk to utterly ****** in a week , no bingo but bizarrely shisha bars can stay open as long as you don't share a pipe
I didn't even know we had any shisha bars

 

[Scaf]

Totally get it. And again, no insult intended, but this is what humans do. Our gut tells us that what we see is what everyone else experiences....
C

No offence taken ...... incidentally the ONS figures also show increased death rate,

 

[CatmanV2]

As I said, up by 699 on a total of 10000 on this week. Plot that graph with the Y extended to zero and it will look rather different. No idea if it's by design, btu that plot will exagerate the difference.

As I also said week 36 was rather below the 5 year average.

Very quick and dirty. Undeniably above, but not by that much (IMHO)



C

 

[Saigon]

No offence taken ...... incidentally the ONS figures also show increased death rate,

Let’s see what it Is like in Wales in a month from now, that is after a complete lockdown for two weeks. Everything shut down, no home visits by anyone inside or outside, no family interaction, restricted travel, schools are closed for half term, working from home, etc. Basically the most that can be done, in fact exactly the same as It was on day one. If it hasn’t improved things we are all in deep sh1t, if it has improved things even on a temporary level it may be the way forward for the time being. It won’t have helped the economy I agree, depends on your personal priorities. But it will be a test case.

 

[CatmanV2]

Let’s see what it Is like in Wales in a month from now, that is after a complete lockdown for two weeks. Everything shut down, no home visits by anyone inside or outside, no family interaction, restricted travel, schools are closed for half term, working from home, etc. Basically the most that can be done, in fact exactly the same as It was on day one. If it hasn’t improved things we are all in deep sh1t, if it has improved things even on a temporary level it may be the way forward for the time being. It won’t have helped the economy I agree, depends on your personal priorities. But it will be a test case.

Challenge with that is it doesn't take into account the collateral impact. (in my opinion)

C

 

[Phil H]

I didn't even know we had any shisha bars

Looks like they are were doing a roaring trade:

Covid: Birmingham shisha cafe shut down after second breach

Police say the raided cafe was hit with the fine for another breach earlier this month.

www.bbc.co.uk

PH

 

[philw696]

Government had emergency meetings yesterday and Sky News reporting the UK will be in Lockdown from Wednesday next week.

 

[D Walker]

Yeah, I heard similar from Del Boy down the pub
Mentioned it before, no instructions come direct from the government, they are floated by news agencies first to gauge reaction, then become a decision / policy.

 

[rockits]

So being very down and dirty with the stats/numbers. Also taking no consideration at all for any human decisions at all so no bias or decision making on this at all.

There are 67,886,011 people in the UK roughly. If based on previous figures we are suggesting around 46229 people have reportedly died of Covid from 990000 reported cases. That is a 4.67% death rate of cases. If we suggest that everyone in the UK got Covid and circa 4.67% died that would be a maximum death number of 3,128,629. If we suggested this took place over 3 years from start to finish or 1095 days that is a death toll of 2857 deaths per day.

Clearly a big number but then start to break that down as that is way unrealistic. We know that Covid attributed death numbers are likely higher than they probably are, as deaths reported as Covid were likely more due to other causes underlying or otherwise. We can also suggest it is likely that some of the population will never contract it at all. We can also suggest it is likely that many that contract it will be asymptomatic or have little or low affects. Then we know it is likely that a very high majority that contract Covid will not die from it or have any long term affects at all.

What out worst case scenario could be down from the above I don't know but I feel it seems a lesser when compared to other evils at the moment. We have a partial capitalist economy due to intervention and manipulation. Sometimes you just have to let things correct and let them run their course. Que Sera, Sera.

This is all very theoretical of course but should would not be looking at what the likely worst possibly outcomes are and making decisions based or likely or possible best, likely and worst case scenarios? Rather than trying to prevent a low number of total deaths at whatever the other financial, economic or other additional directly related deaths?

I am not saying a controlled rolled out 'chicken pox' style party could be a good idea but surely it is worth looking at all possible options. The previous, current and likely future direction of dealing with this virus is clearly not working really so a broader and more radical thought process has to be looked at surely. I am not saying there is a better or more ideal way but I am not sure we are looking at all the options here, radical or otherwise.

One thing that is clear is that even vulnerable people are having their lives taken away from them in other ways. This includes other non-Covid deaths and people with no life at all pretty much. Some old people might not have many days, weeks or months left on this planet and they may want to live their last days as full as they can rather than being locked up like a chicken.

We vote and choose the people that run the country but short of this we have virtually no decision in how the country is run outside of elections. I am not saying everyone should be able to do what they want when they want as clearly there would be chaos. However with much more of this with no end in sight there clearly will be chaos and economic effects have not even come home to roost yet that maybe 2 or 3 generations will pay the price for.

 

[mjheathcote]

Problem is until and if there is a successful vaccine we will lockdown, come out, what's left in the population will spread again, and repeat.
We need to continue life but be harder with preventing it spreading. Many just aren't wearing masks, or not properly (under their nose!), or poor quality. Not maintaining safe distances. Just don't care.
All too often you see a 20 something walk into a shop, or barber's, not wearing a mask, think they are above it all/won't effect me attitude and is rarely challenged.
Something radical like a proper government facemask with replacement filters issued to everyone over 11 and if you are caught not wearing it when outside your home, you get heavily fined. Just a thought and maybe something from a sci-fi movie but must be cheaper than all the payouts.

 

[daverichardson]

If at war with this virus (and I think we are) then get on a war footing to implement what the gov requires
I don't necessarily agree with it all but what we are doing now is not working and has not worked for a while

 

[BennyD]

Problem is until and if there is a successful vaccine we will lockdown, come out, what's left in the population will spread again, and repeat.
We need to continue life but be harder with preventing it spreading. Many just aren't wearing masks, or not properly (under their nose!), or poor quality. Not maintaining safe distances. Just don't care.
All too often you see a 20 something walk into a shop, or barber's, not wearing a mask, think they are above it all/won't effect me attitude and is rarely challenged.
Something radical like a proper government facemask with replacement filters issued to everyone over 11 and if you are caught not wearing it when outside your home, you get heavily fined. Just a thought and maybe something from a sci-fi movie but must be cheaper than all the payouts.

This isn’t the first Coronavirus to hit us and it certainly won’t be the last. What happens if the next one is worse? What then? We won’t be in a position to do anything about it because most of the small businesses, airlines, airports, bars, restaurants will have already shut down. Who'll foot the bill then? We seem to have gone ‘all-in’ on this one and left nothing for a rainy day. The first casualties of the next lock-down should be SAGE; the protected elite who won’t lose their jobs, face furlough or pay cuts and, when it’s over will get promoted and knighthoods. Those fckers are out of touch with reality and are always looking at the worst case scenario. Johnson should say “fck it, lets get on with life and see what happens”. If he did, he’d win the next election because he’s given people their freedom back. I know he took it away, but he had to due to the pressure put on him by SAGE and press leaks.

 

[D Walker]

We will never contain it because the self entitled can’t follow the rules/guidelines.
Nottingham etc etc.