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Wattie

Wattie

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Thanks, quality advice.
Chasing an upside at these ridiculous levels is stupid.
Value your input. Hope others do too.
 
Wattie

Wattie

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Good call yesterday Froddy.
Finally a bit of reality- it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
The uncertainty with the US election and the potential fallout from this

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
Could spook everything too- chaos may ensue.
74718
 
Froddy

Froddy

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Wattie said:
Finally a bit of reality- it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Click to expand...
It certainly will! Is this profit-taking, or do they mean business?

Here's the S&P daily chart (going back to March 2018) showing a beautiful broadening formation:

Price may simply bounce and keep re-testing the top trendline ... or it may not.

As I pointed out the other day, it's a big deal that September is seasonally one of Apple's weakest months and, at the moment, Apple pretty much IS the market (with a market cap bigger than the whole of the FTSE 100, as of a few days ago anyway!).

So goes Apple, so goes the market ...
 
Wattie

Wattie

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There’s a lot to be said for “intuition” and good chart reading,
Another down day, anyone believe that jobs report? Unquestionably fiddled......no coincidence as we approach the election.
This is astonishing and shows the dire story.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

Oh and more skullduggery.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
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Froddy

Froddy

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An interesting end to the week ...

The S&P tested, and bounced with conviction off, the 8EMA on the weekly chart (that yellow line I often speak about).
It has also formed an "outside" candle this week i.e. one that has taken out both the high and the low of the previous week:


An outside candle is in itself a broadening formation (depicted in the chart below), and the question now is "which edge of the formation will price favour - top or bottom?".

In the second half of the day there was a very impressive machine gunning of the pivots on the 15 min chart - will price now continue up through to the top of the range, or is the good work done now that those pivots have been annihilated and stops triggered? We shall have to wait and see!

 
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Froddy

Froddy

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Contigo said:
Click to expand...
Thanks for sharing - I enjoyed listening to that ...

A word of caution, however. In the interview he discusses the technical indicators which he uses, including the RSI (relative strength index) and he also talks about the principle of "reversion to the mean".

What he doesn't tell you is that the RSI for DXY (the dollar index) is technically oversold (and now pointing back up) on the weekly chart, and that DXY is at the extremes of the Keltner Channels which act as "railway tracks" for price. At 23:20 he says that price typically reverts to the mean and then shoots to the opposite side.

We can see this in 2018 (to the left of the chart) - I've circled the RSI then and today, and you can see how price behaved from there the last time the reading was this low. NOT saying it will be a repeat, but it can't be ignored.


Looking at his analysis and using his methodology on the weekly chart above, you'd be brave to sell the dollar right now - not before it has re-tested, and failed at, the mean (the red line).

It's really about timing, although I didn't understand him to be suggesting that the dollar will collapse tomorrow (as opposed to weeks or months from now) ...
 
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Wattie

Wattie

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Froddy said:
Thanks for sharing - I enjoyed listening to that ...

A word of caution, however. In the interview he discusses the technical indicators which he uses, including the RSI (relative strength index) and he also talks about the principle of "reversion to the mean".

What he doesn't tell you is that the RSI for DXY (the dollar index) is technically oversold (and now pointing back up) on the weekly chart, and that DXY is at the extremes of the Keltner Channels which act as "railway tracks" for price. At 23:20 he says that price typically reverts to the mean and then shoots to the opposite side.

We can see this in 2018 (to the left of the chart) - I've circled the RSI then and today, and you can see how price behaved from there the last time the reading was this low. NOT saying it will be a repeat, but it can't be ignored.


Looking at his analysis and using his methodology on the weekly chart above, you'd be brave to sell the dollar right now - not before it has re-tested, and failed at, the mean (the red line).

It's really about timing, although I didn't understand him to be suggesting that the dollar will collapse tomorrow (as opposed to weeks or months from now) ...
Click to expand...
One other thing to point out is that if gold/silver ever hit these levels the economic carnage that would have ensued at even $5000 or £250 would be catastrophic for many.

GBP- be warned, its now under huge pressure after Johnsons Brexit deadline. Swap out to USD and convert back as it tanks. Just about every EU negotiation has gone down to the wire. My gut tells me this will be no different and I feel its unlikely that a deal will be reached at all.
 
Froddy

Froddy

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Wattie said:
GBP- be warned, its now under huge pressure after Johnsons Brexit deadline. Swap out to USD and convert back as it tanks. Just about every EU negotiation has gone down to the wire. My gut tells me this will be no different and I feel its unlikely that a deal will be reached at all.
Click to expand...
I've been watching BXY (GBP index closely) and it's at "exhaustion risk" on the weekly chart, being at the top of the broadening formation.

Yesterday, I entered a half-size GBP/CAD forex short position as there was time frame continuity agreement (i.e. monthly, weekly and daily charts all red). I entered half-size only, as it's a counter-trend (reversal) position which carries more risk.

BXY weekly chart here:


If you're trading GBP, be careful as it will be news-sensitive and volatile, and the forex market is even more bent than the stock market!
 
Wattie

Wattie

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Well well Froddy this is now getting interesting!
Nasdaq and DJindexes battered, Tesla down 20%+, Apple bigly down too.
Robinhooders being handed their ars3es!


If the wealth effect is lost this whole charade goes down......how many days are the Fed gonna stand by and let this happen for, Trump too- isn’t doing his “look at the stock market and re-elect me” message any good.

I’m expecting some Fed direct intervention soon.

Gbp tanking.
Seems you and I know what we’re doing ;):clap:
74939
 
Froddy

Froddy

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Yes, it's getting interesting!

Tomorrow will be telling; what has really struck me today is that there is no sense of panic in the selling - it's all very calm, and the VIX is not behaving as I would have expected - it feels slightly odd. The markets didn't bounce at all into the close, and the S&P didn't defend the 8EMA on the weekly chart (although we have 3 days left for it to do so):


Have we simply run out of buyers?? That's what the put:call ratio has been telling us for some time now ...
 
Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
Froddy said:
Yes, it's getting interesting!

Tomorrow will be telling; what has really struck me today is that there is no sense of panic in the selling - it's all very calm, and the VIX is not behaving as I would have expected - it feels slightly odd. The markets didn't bounce at all into the close, and the S&P didn't defend the 8EMA on the weekly chart (although we have 3 days left for it to do so):


Have we simply run out of buyers?? That's what the put:call ratio has been telling us for some time now ...
Click to expand...
Yup, the whale has gone leaving no liquidity.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/softbank-has-closed-most-its-nasdaq-whale-positions
 
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