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Froddy

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1,072
Yes - very choppy action lies ahead, I think ...

Keep your eye on US$ Index (DXY); I’m long USD/NOK, and short silver (spot).

I have some small bullish vertical spreads in AKAM, EBAY and LITE, and a bearish vertical spread in XOM.

I’m 75% cash due to the volatility.

Hold on tight!
 

Froddy

Member
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1,072
By way of explanation for my current positions:

The US$ may be reverting to the mean on the weekly chart:

USD/NOK may be on its way up to the upper Keltner Channel(s) on the weekly chart:

Silver (spot) may be on its way down to the 21EMA (the mean) on the weekly chart:

LITE - I'm looking for the gap above to be filled - it's bounced off the volume point of control (purple line) and there's a volume gap above (taken from all time high) which it should cut through quickly (if it gets there)

AKAM - same principle

EBAY - price formed an outside bar on the daily chart (a reversal signal if confirmed today) which in itself was an upward break of the preceding inside bar. This is a double-bullish signal. If there's a continuation, I'm looking for price to revert to the volume point of control (the purple line) and the anchored VWAP (the blue line) taken from the all time high

This is not advice, BTW - purely my explanation ...
 

Froddy

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1,072
Is it me?
Haha - don't worry - it's taken me thousands and thousands of hours to learn technical analysis (and I'm still hopeless at it).

I'd hoped the annotated charts explained things, but I obvs need to try harder! Happy to explain further if you have specific questions ...
 

Delmonte

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878
Silver tanking.. 23.5 as I write. My longs looking ropey, so are my silver stocks... And my gold stocks for that matter... Hope you're right boys.
BTW where do we think the bottom is for silver...
 

Froddy

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1,072
Silver tanking.. 23.5 as I write. My longs looking ropey, so are my silver stocks... And my gold stocks for that matter... Hope you're right boys.
BTW where do we think the bottom is for silver...
Hi Delmonte,

I don't know how you are trading spot gold and silver, but I assume it's by CFD/spreads?

I can't see ANY support above 19.50/20 for silver at the moment. I COULD be wrong - anything can happen. For now, I am holding a short position in spot silver. You definitely should not be holding CFD/spread longs - I'd get out and save myself the stress. Re-entry is always just a click away. Weekly chart below showing volume by price analysis and anchored VWAP


As regards gold, here's that broadening formation chart again that I posted several weeks ago. Each bar represents 4 hours, and price looks to be heading towards the bottom of the first range. The question is, will it fail there (and re-test the lower range) or will it bounce:

You need to be aware that there is scope for a USD surge and a liquidity crisis like we saw earlier this year - that could send the metals tumbling before they recover to new all-time highs.

It's so important that you have an exit plan when you trade, otherwise you're left hoping, praying and trying to impose your will on a market which won't listen to what you say!
 
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Wattie

Member
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8,640
Haha - don't worry - it's taken me thousands and thousands of hours to learn technical analysis (and I'm still hopeless at it).

I'd hoped the annotated charts explained things, but I obvs need to try harder! Happy to explain further if you have specific questions ...
I think you’re good and value your interpretation.
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
As regards gold, here's that broadening formation chart again that I posted several weeks ago. Each bar represents 4 hours, and price looks to be heading towards the bottom of the first range. The question is, will it fail there (and re-test the lower range) or will it bounce:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qcIY65oD/
Here we go, chaps - first decision point reached for spot gold - will it fail at, or will it defend, this particular broadening formation trendline?
 

Wattie

Member
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8,640
Here we go, chaps - first decision point reached for spot gold - will it fail at, or will it defend, this particular broadening formation trendline?
As a little aside to Froddy's observations on Gold/Silver (excellent accumulation opportunities- average in over the next few months) I think we are in for a massive amount of volatility between now and the end of the year. I expect most things to tumble.
The US election is going to determine the path of markets and it seems to me that it is very unlikely either side will accept the results of the election- leading to chaos.
Ironic really given that the US has bombed the feck out of many countries in the ME and beyond, in an attempt to export democracy.

I'd be moving Pension funds to cash if it’s not already in Cash and averaging back in as the dust settles in the coming months.
 
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Wattie

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Tell me Wattmeister how does one move a pension to cash ?
Contact your IFA, or Pension Fund Manager and ask them for a "switch" form to enable a switch to a cash fund. You will need to Identify the name of the cash fund you wish, from whats available in their fund selections.

I think things are looking very very dicey.
The Ponzi aint gonna be helped by election nonsense.

(if a USD cash fund exists you may wish to consider this in part too as GBP£ is under pressure re the October "No deal" deadline.)

Perfecting the ponzi-https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/l...eposit-digital-dollars-directly-each-american
 
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Froddy

Member
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1,072
Here we go, chaps - first decision point reached for spot gold - will it fail at, or will it defend, this particular broadening formation trendline?
An update:

Gold (spot), whilst lower, is respecting the broadening formation trendline perfectly:

And I've identified a potential area of support at c. 1830

I'm still short spot silver, and will remain so until it finds its feet, and then I can identify a pivot point to enable me to look for broadening formations ...
 

Wattie

Member
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8,640
An update:

Gold (spot), whilst lower, is respecting the broadening formation trendline perfectly:

And I've identified a potential area of support at c. 1830

I'm still short spot silver, and will remain so until it finds its feet, and then I can identify a pivot point to enable me to look for broadening formations ...
When u think silver is pivoting can u post please- I’ve got cash on sidelines.
 

nigw

Member
Messages
904
Contact your IFA, or Pension Fund Manager and ask them for a "switch" form to enable a switch to a cash fund. You will need to Identify the name of the cash fund you wish, from whats available in their fund selections.

I think things are looking very very dicey.
The Ponzi aint gonna be helped by election nonsense.

(if a USD cash fund exists you may wish to consider this in part too as GBP£ is under pressure re the October "No deal" deadline.)

Perfecting the ponzi-https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/l...eposit-digital-dollars-directly-each-american

My pension was default invested in 97% equity and 3% diversified growth. A few weeks ago I moved it to 40% cash, 50% equity and 10% diversified growth. Perhaps I should've done more....

Around a month ago I invested a bit in gold for the longer term, and that's currently 10% down. I'm now pondering whether to buy again at the current $1830 (bullion).

It's all fairly uninformed gambling for me tbh!
 

Wattie

Member
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8,640
My pension was default invested in 97% equity and 3% diversified growth. A few weeks ago I moved it to 40% cash, 50% equity and 10% diversified growth. Perhaps I should've done more....

Around a month ago I invested a bit in gold for the longer term, and that's currently 10% down. I'm now pondering whether to buy again at the current $1830 (bullion).

It's all fairly uninformed gambling for me tbh!
Averaging is good.
 

D Walker

Member
Messages
9,827
Moved mine to cash in April and after speaking to Wattie, I was going to drip feed it back into other schemes over a 6 month period, but, I thought I would hang on just a couple of month more and start in October......looks like I will wait a while longer...
 

Froddy

Member
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1,072
Chaps,

Silver (spot) has found support at the 100 period simple moving average (100SMA) on the daily chart:

Price has formed a "hammer candle"; this is a potential reversal candle, and it's done so whilst in the oversold condition, meaning that it may bounce further. I'm NOT saying that the downtrend is now reversing (although it may do). The reason I don't think it will be a full-on reversal is because the US dollar index (DXY) has a bullish volatility squeeze which has just fired to the upside:

Notice also that the silver daily chart (first chart above) has a freshly fired bearish volatility squeeze.

On the 4 hour chart, the dollar is losing momentum after the last bullish squeeze on that particular timeframe fired. It's exhausted and now needs to catch its breath before the daily squeeze picks it up again:

So, basically, both trends (dollar up/silver down) remain intact, and there will likely be corrections in both and perhaps a period of consolidation.

If you wanted to play silver to the upside, you could enter during tomorrow's candle (after 11pm tonight I think) once price is above today's high (23.347). You can only do this because there is a hammer candle in the oversold condition.

So it would look something like this:

I'm no longer in a short spot silver position - I'm going to watch it closely, and will re-enter if there's further weakness, although not tomorrow morning as I have a Formula Renault trackday experience to look forward to!!
 
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Wattie

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8,640
Noted Froddy, my concerns remain re the US election uncertainty and lack of further stimulus (upon which this whole illusion relies)

If markets fall, i expect the metals to fall (margin calls etc).

And there’s this...
75566
 

Wattie

Member
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8,640
Moved mine to cash in April and after speaking to Wattie, I was going to drip feed it back into other schemes over a 6 month period, but, I thought I would hang on just a couple of month more and start in October......looks like I will wait a while longer...
It's a pity you didn't average like I suggested....you'd have caught most of the apr-oct upside. Watch Oct, settle on an averaging period and get started with the drips....