GS Prices

m1980k

Junior Member
Messages
467
#1
There has been some speculation on the forum that prices of GranSports are rising. Now, thanks to Voicey collecting prices for cars advertised on Pistonheads since last February, I can confirm that asking prices since then have risen by about 9%.

Below are the average monthly prices for all trade advertised cars, as well as for full leather cars only. Actually, there's one car that I've left out of the data: the 6k miles car with a custom interior advertised at Prindiville recently. That car was well outside the normal range for mileage and price, and can't really be classified as full leather or tech cloth. And why only trade cars? Private cars trade at a discount, there are smaller numbers of them and sometimes there aren't any on the market – including them would make the data more noisey. Private owners might overprice cars because they don't understand the market, or sometimes price them cheaply for a quick sale. If we want to find out whether the typical GranSport is going up in price then we need to keep the variables to a minimum. What you don't want is to have a month where there are no privately advertised cars (or more tech cloth cars) on the market, which then fools you into thinking that prices have risen.

avg_price_apr16.jpg

The average asking price for all cars over the period has risen from £27,583 to £30,146 (+9.3%). For full leather cars it's up from £28,848 to £31,865 (+10.5%).

Of course the prices of these cars vary a lot based on condition, mileage, spec, service history etc. There's no easy way to incorporate some of those factors into the analysis, but mileage is available for all the cars. Over the full period, the average mileage of cars advertised was 37,000, with no obvious trend to explain the rise in prices (i.e. average mileage of cars advertised has not fallen). What I have also done is to take asking prices and mileage for the cars advertised each quarter and calculate what typical cars of certain mileages would be worth. The relationship between mileage and price has been fairly stable over time: full leather cars decline in value by £2,000 for every 10,000 miles. The data below demonstrates that there has been minimal change in the value of 20k mile cars vs. 50k mile cars.

pred_table.jpg

pred_graph.jpg

One more thing: this doesn't mean that a particular car is over or under priced because it's above or below those lines. The data includes cars of various standards. A perfectly maintained car from a known specialist with a 12 month warranty is obviously worth more than the ‘average' car.

We have data for all models – if I get time I can try and do something for 32 and 4200s.
 

MAF260

Moderator
Messages
6,647
#2
Very interesting information, thanks.

We need to make sure that it's not used negatively within our own discussions - comments about cars being "overpriced" because the asking price is above the line, especially if 'values' are rising. What will also be interesting to see is the number of % of cars at each mileage category. The oldest GranSport is now 12 years old, the newest 9 (very few cars registered 2008). Lower mileage (let's say sub 50k miles) will be less common as time goes on as these cars are generally used rather than garage queens. Mine is 10.5 years old now and on 60k miles. 5.7k miles per year average is low mileage in my view. I'm also using it less these days as I enjoy driving the Ghibli, so my average mileage will decrease as time goes on.
 

conaero

Forum Owner
Messages
27,162
#3
Just to add to this, supply and demand is a major contributing factor to price.

I had a look on Autotrader last week at GranSport and GranTurismo 4.7's and was staggered at what I found.

Here are today figures which were much the same:

GS for sale, all variants = 7
Asking price range = 27,495 - 34,995

GranTurismo for sale, all variants, 122
of which 87 are 4.7's
Asking price range = 35,950 - 125,896


Some other stats:

Maserati for sale, all variants = 420
222 = 1
Biturbo = 1
3200 = 12
4200 = 17
GranSport = 7
Spyder = 4
QP = 96 (50/50 split of new the and old model)
GranTurismo = 122
GranCabrio = 40
Ghibli = 120

So the 3200/4200/GranSport/Spyder are becoming either very rare or owners are hanging on to them, and GT's are being dumped at present and 4.7's far outweigh 4.2's by more than 2:1. Not disrespecting the GT, its just a very overstocked market right now, probably in some part due to the unofficial announcement that its production is ceasing and a negative price readjustment has been implemented due to supply and demand.

A great time to buy a 4.7GT, and a great time for current 4.7GT owners to forget about selling them and continue to enjoy them as a further 5 years on, these cars will be the rare model and the Ghibli/Levante will be the overstocked model.

Hum, off Strad window shopping again :)

Conaero's Deal of the day: 2014 QP 3L TDV6 with 20k miles....£40k!!!!!
 

m1980k

Junior Member
Messages
467
#5
Very interesting information, thanks.

We need to make sure that it's not used negatively within our own discussions - comments about cars being "overpriced" because the asking price is above the line, especially if 'values' are rising. What will also be interesting to see is the number of % of cars at each mileage category. The oldest GranSport is now 12 years old, the newest 9 (very few cars registered 2008). Lower mileage (let's say sub 50k miles) will be less common as time goes on as these cars are generally used rather than garage queens. Mine is 10.5 years old now and on 60k miles. 5.7k miles per year average is low mileage in my view. I'm also using it less these days as I enjoy driving the Ghibli, so my average mileage will decrease as time goes on.
Totally agree on the negativity point. There are two few cars available at any one time and not enough data on their condition to make precise judgements. We can only really comment on what's happening in general. You would expect a car from Nuvola/Dicky to be well above the line because that line is also derived from poorly maintained cars with shorter warranties.

Regarding mileage, you'll probably just get bifurcation: some cars will do limited mileage, some will be used more regularly. I expect I'll do around 3k miles a year in mine but that's because it's a weekend toy and I take the train to work.

And most importantly, if prices rise 10% a year then I can justify 'investing' £9k on brakes, exhaust and suspension mods to enjoy for the next 3 years for 'free'! (Totally ignoring maintainence costs, but those should always be ignored anyway...)
 

m1980k

Junior Member
Messages
467
#6
That's really interesting. So the index is running at about 109 at the moment ? Using Aldous methods ?
Yes, 109. But as I promised Voicey I'd say this: he collected the data, I did this analysis. His 360 stuff is more in depth. But I doubt anyone would get very different results, however they approached the data.
 

MAF260

Moderator
Messages
6,647
#7
It would be interesting to see a separate chart for private sales to run alongside this if you think it's valid? A lot of cars are sold privately at this level, especially when prices are so low in comparison to Ferraris etc.
 

whereskeith

Junior Member
Messages
420
#9
great work...thx
I watch the prices here in Spain and they have not really moved yet.
They takes ages to sell so the cars are advertised for a while.
 

outrun

Centenary Club
Messages
3,401
#10
One of the most interesting posts for ages. Well done to Voicey and M1980K.

I echo MAF's sentiments here. It's very important that we utilise data like this in a positive light. Our cars are rising in value and ensuring that we do our bit to protect the brand ID, especially in light of Maserati's apparent inability/unwillingness to do this themselves. It's great news that like minded enthusiasts can use actual data like this to help guide themselves to the best purchase for their circumstances. It's even better news that our man maths calculators can demonstrate real investment understanding to our other halfs when making these choices...(Ok maybe that's a wee leap!).

Given the inflated market for anything with a prancing horse or raging bull on it's nose, there is no reason why we can't contribute to a strong market for our own favoured brand.

Stradale's, MCV's, GS Spyder, Anniversary Spyder and the Sport GTS QP variants are all looking like good buys right now and going forwards. 4.7 GTs, regular GS, QP Sport GT/Executive and any good 3200/4200 must also be considered safe places to park some cash.
 

Contigo

Moderator
Messages
16,563
#11
How is it accurate if we don't know what they actually sold for though? I realise that it is hard to gather (nigh on impossible) but for accuracy surely that is what is needed?
 

m1980k

Junior Member
Messages
467
#13
How is it accurate if we don't know what they actually sold for though? I realise that it is hard to gather (nigh on impossible) but for accuracy surely that is what is needed?
Absolutely right - these are just asking prices.

Maybe the odd dealer tries their luck, but I doubt that as a group they've been pushing prices up over the course of the 14 month period. I think an increase in asking prices like this does suggest that real values have been increasing. If the market wasn't there for £30k GSs then I think the dealers would face a drop in interest when advertising at those prices.
 

m1980k

Junior Member
Messages
467
#14
Great work but how do you evaluate agains the cars age using the tables...or am I being thick?
I haven't taken age into account. There are so few cars that if you start dividing them up by year then you're going to struggle to get any meaningful results. The table shows the theorectical asking price of a 20k, 35k and 50k miles car at each point in time, so you can track how it's changed between the first quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2016.
 

m1980k

Junior Member
Messages
467
#15
It would be interesting to see a separate chart for private sales to run alongside this if you think it's valid? A lot of cars are sold privately at this level, especially when prices are so low in comparison to Ferraris etc.
The problem is that Voicey scrapes the data on the first of each month. Trade ads tend to hang around for a while, private ads seem to disappear faster (I guess it's more hassle to answer the phone when you've already sold a private car, whereas a dealer can take your name and try and sell you another, or maybe buy yours). So we're probably missing quite a few trade ads from the data, especially cars that are priced to sell. I have details of 123 ads over the period, but only 6 are private.
 

allandwf

Centenary Club
Messages
7,067
#16
It is a guide which we did not have previously. Yes they are asking prices, actual selling prices will in most cases be slightly lower. Unless you use auction figures, but these can fluctuate wildly. It is a good effort and as a guide a great tool. There are guides for a few Marques, and if used to show a trend then all good. We all know figures can be talked up/down or manipulated to show what ever you please!
 
Messages
11,069
#17
I haven't taken age into account. There are so few cars that if you start dividing them up by year then you're going to struggle to get any meaningful results. The table shows the theorectical asking price of a 20k, 35k and 50k miles car at each point in time, so you can track how it's changed between the first quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2016.
Its great work and I am not trying to knock it, but if the cars for sale at any one time are young or old the figures are going to be influenced one way or another which then gives the impression of a rise or fall that month.
 

MAF260

Moderator
Messages
6,647
#18
Its great work and I am not trying to knock it, but if the cars for sale at any one time are young or old the figures are going to be influenced one way or another which then gives the impression of a rise or fall that month.
I disagree in this case. GranSports were only made for 4 years, so are already a rare enough car. Whilst some may be swayed by a newer car, there are many who would rather pay less in road tax for a pre-23rd March 2006 car and so could see it as more valuable. Let's face it, every single car is unique so it's better (IMO) to use a more general guide than to try to get into minor details that are nigh-on impossible to measure.
 

conaero

Forum Owner
Messages
27,162
#19
I disagree in this case. GranSports were only made for 4 years, so are already a rare enough car. Whilst some may be swayed by a newer car, there are many who would rather pay less in road tax for a pre-23rd March 2006 car and so could see it as more valuable. Let's face it, every single car is unique so it's better (IMO) to use a more general guide than to try to get into minor details that are nigh-on impossible to measure.
If buying a GS, I would not even consider the year of manufacture, its irrelevant, mileage, history and condition are the important factors plus as MAF says, I would personally prefer to pay half rate road tax if I could so would favour the older cars.
 

hilts uk

Centenary Club
Messages
898
#20
I disagree in this case. GranSports were only made for 4 years, so are already a rare enough car. Whilst some may be swayed by a newer car, there are many who would rather pay less in road tax for a pre-23rd March 2006 car and so could see it as more valuable. Let's face it, every single car is unique so it's better (IMO) to use a more general guide than to try to get into minor details that are nigh-on impossible to measure.
Great work and very interesting. I agree - mileage and condition more important than age for a GS given limited life. So only 7 GS for sale in the UK. Any chance of the data which shows number for sale over time? Feels like this is a very low number compared to last year.