War, huh, yeah. What is it good for?

UlstermanAbroad

UlstermanAbroad

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Apologies for stating the obvious. And since Russia has invaded again, I feel that a new thread is called for.
As I believe that we're in a whole new state of affairs now. 'Meanwhile on the Ukrainian Border' doesn't really cut it.

The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said on Meet the Press on Sunday. That if the Biden/Putin summit went ahead, then diplomacy still had a window of opportunity. He was categorical, when he said that if the summit didn't happen, Putin would invade.

So far, he's testing the response of the US and to a lesser extent, NATO. His real objective is to annexe all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River. (at least) Effectively cutting the country in half. This secures his land corridor to Crimea and critically for a Georgian, this will also deter Georgia from pushing it's EU/NATO aspirations.

Once the dust settles, I would be concerned about Putin's agenda for Kaliningrad. Between Poland and Lithuania. So far as I can recall. There is a rail link between the city of Kaliningrad and Minsk (Belarus). Russia has always wanted to have a better land corridor into Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea, since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
However, given Poland and Lithuania are NATO members, annexing a bigger land corridor is a much greater order of risk.
However, I would expect Putin to have a 'play book' of moves involving the use of gas supply in the autumn / winter of 2022/3.

For a Georgian President, 'losing' Ukraine and Georgia would have been an eternally embarrassing legacy to leave behind. An unsolved Kaliningrad issue. Not so much.

The question for Ukrainians now is not whether he'll invade. But whether he'll stop at the Dnieper River. Ukraine might've been able to slow a Russian advance on one front. But not from the East, South and North and that's probably what's going to happen, so that the advance can be over as quickly as possible. After which the Russians will hope that diplomacy will kick back in. Salami slicing. To an extent.
 
GeoffCapes

GeoffCapes

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I spoke to a colleague in Poland yesterday and there's quite a bit of concern in southern Poland that Putin will turn north after he's conquered the Ukraine.
The general view is that NATO wouldn't help one bit should the Russians invade.
 
Wattie

Wattie

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Im more interested in matters that are more widespread than Ukraine.
Can we have a WEF thread?
 
FIFTY

FIFTY

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GeoffCapes said:
I spoke to a colleague in Poland yesterday and there's quite a bit of concern in southern Poland that Putin will turn north after he's conquered the Ukraine.
The general view is that NATO wouldn't help one bit should the Russians invade.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't get too excited... Although sometimes it might seem more like 1922 than 2022; a total war on Russia's western front is highly unlikely.

That said the arms factories will be taking orders no doubt.
 
UlstermanAbroad

UlstermanAbroad

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GeoffCapes said:
I spoke to a colleague in Poland yesterday and there's quite a bit of concern in southern Poland that Putin will turn north after he's conquered the Ukraine.
The general view is that NATO wouldn't help one bit should the Russians invade.
Click to expand...
The problem with that logic is that the US 82nd Airborne Division is in the process of reinforcing South Eastern Poland. They're right on the Polish / Ukrainian border. Effectively, if Putin turns north, he's immediately in a shooting war with NATO.
The consensus is that he's using the overwhelming majority of his most effective forces in Ukraine and until
that's settled. Can't do much more with the conventional forces he possesses. If you look at the types of armour the Russians have moved into Ukraine and Belarus. It's mostly Cold War legacy kit. If this is the best the Russians have,
NATO doesn't have much to worry about. Apart from the tactical nuclear weapons back in Belarus and also in Russia.

I'll give you another valid reason that Russian forces won't invade Poland from Ukraine.
The Caucasus Mountains. They extend all along Poland's southern border with the Czech Republic and most of the way along Poland's border with Ukraine, to the north. I've been here and hiked and skied at various places along the Caucasus Mountains and if you imagine The Alps, you're not far off what the Caucasus Mountains look like.
Hitler tried to invade going the other direction, from Poland into Ukraine and down to the Black Sea and had to give up. You cannot get armoured vehicles through here and even elite mountain troops would find it a challenge.
The US is the only country to have significant numbers of troops specialised in mountain warfare. By significant, I mean, a few divisions.

Tell your Polish colleagues to take some Prozac ;)
 
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GeoffCapes

GeoffCapes

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UlstermanAbroad said:
The problem with that logic is that the US 82nd Airborne Division is in the process of reinforcing South Eastern Poland. They're right on the Polish / Ukrainian border. Effectively, if Putin turns north, he's immediately in a shooting war with NATO.
The consensus is that he's using the overwhelming majority of his most effective forces in Ukraine and until
that's settled. Can't do much more with the conventional forces he possesses. If you look at the types of armour the Russians have moved into Ukraine and Belarus. It's mostly Cold War legacy kit. If this is the best the Russians have,
NATO doesn't have much to worry about. Apart from the tactical nuclear weapons back in Belarus and also in Russia.

I'll give you another valid reason that Russian forces won't invade Poland from Ukraine.
The Caucasus Mountains. They extend all along Poland's southern border with the Czech Republic and most of the way along Poland's border with Ukraine, to the north. I've been here and hiked and skied at various places along the Caucasus Mountains and if you imagine The Alps, you're not far off what the Caucasus Mountains look like.
Hitler tried to invade going the other direction, from Poland into Ukraine and down to the Black Sea and had to give up. You cannot get armoured vehicles through here and even elite mountain troops would find it a challenge.
The US is the only country to have significant numbers of troops specialised in mountain warfare. By significant, I mean, a few divisions.

Tell your Polish colleagues to take some Prozac ;)
Click to expand...

They're more likely to be on the Tyskie!
 
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