midlifecrisis
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So Boris is back to work today. Who does his return to work interview and since it was a work related illness lasting more than 6 days then a RIDDOR should be filed with the HSE
Spot on summary!...all you can really take from the data is the trends and that's it because there are so many variables and therefore so many holes in the data. What I find even more curious though is given that we are supposed to be past the peak now, why the need for 17 Nightingale hospitals which arent being used? Suggests to me that when restrictions do eventually start to be lifted, will there be worse yet to come? I really hope not.....You can't draw truly accurate conclusions from this sort of data....however they are meaningful guides. I'd firstly suggest not confusing 'having CoVid' with 'running a test' or 'attributing death to CoVid'. If you just look at the last measure (fatalities...either as a raw number or as a percentile... a la 'deaths per thousand (million) etc' bear in mind the many significant variables;
There are also issues of competency, capability, capacity, etc etc etc. Policy is probably the biggest variable (whether you record deaths only in hospitals, or - in the case of North Korea - you simply tell your citizens that they must not catch or die from CoVid, which has been remarkably successful, and Kim is to be applauded) - as is capability (I'm sure in Afghanistan it may be problematic to record accurate statistics).
- Some nations include deaths from hospitals only, others include nursing homes, whilst others offer a broader base
- Many hospital systems allow a single 'cause of death' to be reported. So how do you record whether the person died from CoVid, or from their underlying hypertension, or obesity, etc etc
- Many political systems may deliberately intervene - as they want statistics to defend and support their own policies (whether to lock down, whether to open up, etc). More authoritarian governments get better 'compliance'
- Many hospital systems may intentionally misrepresent - believe you me there's gold in them rivers (i.e funding attached to matters like CoVid). Hospitals will often behave in the manner that accrues greatest funding
- Many individual health practitioners may even deliberately misrepresent (for their own political reasons, or above funding reasons) or misrecord data
And - even the issue of timing (dead people inside houses during lockdown).
So....you can use these data sources to show trends (as I alluded to the other day, a clear trend between northern and southern hemisphere fatalities).....but don't expect them to be masterful records of actual events.
On the topic of difference / parallels between UK and Germany...ahem...the rest of the world does not see a huge disparity in your population density. My guess is Germany is twice the size, but with 55% more people? Given either end of these extremes - say India at one end and Australia the other - I'd see density, land mass, population, - even ethnic composition as vaguely similar between the two.
But it does seem that there is a material difference between fatality rates (rates, not raw numbers) in Germany vs the UK, and it is curious as to why that may be. As some have pointed out, UK should be in a more desirable position as it has less porous borders. Those porous borders worked well early on for Adolf.....but in theory should not help in a pandemic.
Spot on summary!...all you can really take from the data is the trends and that's it because there are so many variables and therefore so many holes in the data. What I find even more curious though is given that we are supposed to be past the peak now, why the need for 17 Nightingale hospitals which arent being used? Suggests to me that when restrictions do eventually start to be lifted, will there be worse yet to come? I really hope not.....
This is well worth a read and a big difference between the German PM and the UK one.
Germany's Covid-19 expert: 'For many, I'm the evil guy crippling the economy'
Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten on Merkel’s leadership, the UK response and the ‘prevention paradox’Coronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coveragewww.theguardian.com
Totally agree but what the f does it mean?Juxtaposition what a Great word that is.
Well it appears that there is a view in Germany that there will also be a second wave.Fascinating juxtaposition in these two posts.
C
Don’t jump on my as like others I haven’t been making spreadsheets of figures- but- don’t they have roughly 25% extra population and a quarter of the deaths? That’s a good endpoint to compare on.Why guess?
Germany: 357,386 km²
UK: 242,495 km²
So 47% greater area
Germany: 83m
UK: 66.7m
24% greater population
Germany: 232 per km2
UK: 275 per km2.
Looks like about 18% lower density. Give or take.
Dear god
C
There is no doubt that there will be phases and the release of the lockdown will be proportional to an increase in cases. From a medical point of view- I would say that it hasn’t been as bad as we would expect in some ways - but the balance now of releasing lockdown and managing new cases will be interesting. I am just pleased it’s not winter!Spot on summary!...all you can really take from the data is the trends and that's it because there are so many variables and therefore so many holes in the data. What I find even more curious though is given that we are supposed to be past the peak now, why the need for 17 Nightingale hospitals which arent being used? Suggests to me that when restrictions do eventually start to be lifted, will there be worse yet to come? I really hope not.....
We're okay now though as Boris is back.
I am just pleased it’s not winter!
This is a far more vexing matter than virology and epidemiology...
.... Is there actually any point in time at which it's not winter in the UK?
(preparing my new log in alias immediately...)