Ineos Grenadier and flipping

[schell70]

Hi all, thought I'd tap the forum up for any opinions on 'flipping' new model vehicles......

I have a reservation on an Ineos Grenadier, and now received the update on the build date deposit which will be due next month. I've always found the idea of this vehicle quite appealing and decided to try and get an early reservation with the idea to keep for 6 months and then flip it - given what looks like high demand and a low initial build number.

UK allocation seems to be max 2500 for 2022/23 - my reservation number from what I can tell when compared to friends who have also reserved is 247 - so I have a few thoughts that I would be interested to know what others think about.

1. Given what happened with new Defenders selling way over the odds do we think the same will happen?
2. Is 6 months too long to keep it?
3. What if I like it too much! I can afford to keep it if this happens but it moves away from my bangernomics model for daily's
4. Don't know if I will get to test drive one before having to commit to a build date - refund t&c's are unclear
5. Will I look like a k**b in it?

So, has anyone bought a vehicle purely to flip and did you make/lose money or end up keeping it?

Cheers,
Simon

 

[Ewan]

Like you, I have a reservation. And I see we all now need to dob in another £2k to provide our spec. So I suspect the build order will depend more on how quickly you and I pay this bit, rather than the original deposit.
No idea about the flip question. I‘m planning on keeping mine (though I don’t have a good history on keeping cars...)
Hard to compare (financially) to the new Defender, as JLR have a huge semiconductor shortage so are way behind on build numbers, hence long waiting lists, hence price inflation on physical stock.
Reassuring to hear Ineos already have 15,000 reservation though, as that‘s a lot for a company that has never built a car before and has zero presence outside of the car-nerd World.

 

[Ewan]

Oh, and in answer to your questions:
1,2,3 - I’ve no idea.
4 - Highly unlikely.
5 - I hope not. As that’ll apply to me too!

 

[zagatoes30]

Surprised either of you are asking question 5 on here, the response is likely to be predictable and unanimous

 

[mjheathcote]

But it's French?

 

[bigbob]

Defender values are strong so I get where you are coming from. I suspect these will be low depreciation vehicles, whether you make a profit with dealer margins etc I am not so sure but you will not lose much and it will be a fun car. The gap is there because LR did not really replace the old Defender and the new Defender is really the Discovery 6 to make up for the dogs dinner that the Discovery 5 is (I owned Discoveries for years before this horrendous mistake).

For me Ratcliffe dropped the ball by not making it in the UK. Like Barbour and Church's shoes, much of the appeal is the 'Britishness' (the name eludes to this and yes I know that the French army had Grenadiers but most people will think British with the name, hence its selection) and I can't forgive him for that. Of course, the market does not care so he was right. The fact that the Defender is made only 250 miles from the Ukraine is probably unknown and of no interest to the average buyer.

 

[GeoffCapes]

I sat in a new Defender at the weekend when we test drove a Discovery, wasn't impressed at all (with the Defender, the Discovery was great!).

I seriously cannot see the appeal of them.

 

[bigbob]

I sat in a new Defender at the weekend when we test drove a Discovery, wasn't impressed at all (with the Defender, the Discovery was great!).

I seriously cannot see the appeal of them.

I get why the Defender might not work for you but the Disco5 misses so much of what made the Disco3&4 brilliant cars.

 

[GeoffCapes]

I get why the Defender might not work for you but the Disco5 misses so much of what made the Disco3&4 brilliant cars.

It's for the missus, so it's her decision.

As for the Defender, it's like they've taken a proper workhorse and gentrified it but tried to keep it as a workhorse, so it's just a bit awkward.
Not rough enough to be a proper workhorse, not luxurious enough to be a luxury 4x4 but they charge top prices for it! Weird.

 

[schell70]

I actually had a Defender 110 on test as part of the Ineos decision and I was pleasantly surprised by it compared and totally agree that's really what the Disco should be but its crazy expensive for what it is. It's also fugly from behind IMHO.

 

[safrane]

Interesting post - Personally I think the current situation and the hike in fuel prices will 'pop' the car bubble pretty soon.

 

[UlstermanAbroad]

Found an old petrol receipt from mid November 2021 and I paid £1.40 per litre for unleaded.
Driving past the same outlet today and the price was £1.60 per litre.

On the Grenadier. I thought at the time it was announced that there was a huge opportunity to
build a modern 'take' on a Defender, but make it stripped back and very favourably priced.
I thought that with this 'formula' the farmers and leisure buyers would flock to it. Especially
considering the new Defender was being talked of, as a £50k++ vehicle. Being built in Britain
was a massive positive, since we ought to be doing this across the board, where we can, to
shorten our supply chains and make them much more robust. One of several caveats to the above is
I suspect or I read somewhere recently, that farmers have moved on to other vehicles / brands.
Like Toyota. So, the only realistic option was to compete with the new JLR Defender.
I don't know if the utilitarian niche is still there. By that I mean the niche that the original Series 1
was meant to fill. If it is, I would love to see someone fill it, by building in the UK. In a Free Port say.

On buying to flip. I also think that the car bubble will burst soon. As interest rates rise, there'll be much
less disposable income because of the rising costs of servicing mortgages and other loans. Food prices
are going to rise over the next few years. Possibly sharply. Ukraine and the surrounding countries produced a
high proportion of the world's wheat and next year's crop is unlikely to be planted this autumn.
Energy prices are rising rapidly and experts are predicting that energy, along with many commodities will rise in price sharply. The head of the World Food Programme was on Radio 4 this morning, screaming about catastrophic food shortages, including in the developed world. The presenter commented that the WFP are known for being conservative, slow to sound the alarm and very reliable in forecasting. The guy was categorical. Talked in terms of 'the perfect storm'.
So, I suspect that once the novelty has worn off and we're all cutting our cloth etc etc anything strange, expensive
and of niche utility, will only be able to maintain sales by dropping prices. Did someone say the vehicle is being made in France? As prices fall. Good luck negotiating cost take-out exercises with the French unions!
Given the rapidly deteriorating mess in Eastern Europe and economic forecasts for developed economies next year, if I had an option to buy, I'd be testing the water to see if there was a premium to be had from selling your option to another buyer.

 

[schell70]

Found an old petrol receipt from mid November 2021 and I paid £1.40 per litre for unleaded.
Driving past the same outlet today and the price was £1.60 per litre.

On the Grenadier. I thought at the time it was announced that there was a huge opportunity to
build a modern 'take' on a Defender, but make it stripped back and very favourably priced.
I thought that with this 'formula' the farmers and leisure buyers would flock to it. Especially
considering the new Defender was being talked of, as a £50k++ vehicle. Being built in Britain
was a massive positive, since we ought to be doing this across the board, where we can, to
shorten our supply chains and make them much more robust. One of several caveats to the above is
I suspect or I read somewhere recently, that farmers have moved on to other vehicles / brands.
Like Toyota. So, the only realistic option was to compete with the new JLR Defender.
I don't know if the utilitarian niche is still there. By that I mean the niche that the original Series 1
was meant to fill. If it is, I would love to see someone fill it, by building in the UK. In a Free Port say.

On buying to flip. I also think that the car bubble will burst soon. As interest rates rise, there'll be much
less disposable income because of the rising costs of servicing mortgages and other loans. Food prices
are going to rise over the next few years. Possibly sharply. Ukraine and the surrounding countries produced a
high proportion of the world's wheat and next year's crop is unlikely to be planted this autumn.
Energy prices are rising rapidly and experts are predicting that energy, along with many commodities will rise in price sharply. The head of the World Food Programme was on Radio 4 this morning, screaming about catastrophic food shortages, including in the developed world. The presenter commented that the WFP are known for being conservative, slow to sound the alarm and very reliable in forecasting. The guy was categorical. Talked in terms of 'the perfect storm'.
So, I suspect that once the novelty has worn off and we're all cutting our cloth etc etc anything strange, expensive
and of niche utility, will only be able to maintain sales by dropping prices. Did someone say the vehicle is being made in France? As prices fall. Good luck negotiating cost take-out exercises with the French unions!
Given the rapidly deteriorating mess in Eastern Europe and economic forecasts for developed economies next year, if I had an option to buy, I'd be testing the water to see if there was a premium to be had from selling your option to another buyer.

Thanks for cheering me up

I kind of agree and actually unless my own financial position changes I will probably end up keeping it as a long term vehicle (unless I don't like it!) - things are becoming clearer!

Yes it's being made in the Smart car factory - Mercedes wanted to get rid of the plant and Ineos got a ready made production line that had recently been upgraded with caveat to continue Smart production for Mercedes.

Unfortunately there is a clause which prevents selling your slot - so you either forefit or take delivery and then sell.

 

[UlstermanAbroad]

Thanks for cheering me up
Unfortunately there is a clause which prevents selling your slot - so you either forefit or take delivery and then sell.

You're most welcome. I always tried to make someone's day, every day, when I was in multinationals, so this is a nice throw back for me too
I thought I was a bit gloom and doom. Glad I wasn't only that.
I did wonder / suspect that there was a clause to prevent slot selling. I just couldn't recall for certain.
If it flicks all your switches, then why not. You're only here once!

 

[MarkMas]

I stumbled across a Grenadier today and it looks pretty good. Driving position looks somehow a bit cramped, but overall quite encouraging. Not that I have £60-70k to spend.

 

[mjheathcote]

I'd be interested to know if anyone has flipped and made any money.
Because the hew LR Defender has now been out a while, this French copy doesn't look appealing to me at all.

 

[lozcb]

All those plastic trims might be fine driving the streets alongside the Chelsea tractors , but they wouldnt last a couple of weeks in the neck of the woods where i work , Toyota has well and truly collared that market IMHO they wont let it go lightly

And please Ulsterman dont get me started on the WFP WHO IMF , they are only interested in spreading perpetual doom and gloom so that each year budgets get increased , all of them have an interest in keeping African nations poor and dependent on handouts, if im wrong please name me one success story , their only success is that there own organisations are growing in numbers each year to enable more white men to continue on exorbitant salaries, fly first class ..........its embarrassing to any westerner involved in a private capacity

 

[Wack61]

I sat in a new Defender at the weekend when we test drove a Discovery, wasn't impressed at all (with the Defender, the Discovery was great!).

I seriously cannot see the appeal of them.

Because they look cool in an urban environment


I'd think the percentage of 4x4s used off road is incredibly low

LR builds status cars these days

 

[lozcb]

In the fiftes sixties and seventies Defenders were considered the go to 4x4 , had the monopoly in most of the middle east and Africa (probably at that time the widest market ) for true off road usage, spares were widely available during those times .............since the eighties Toyota took over with the 70 series range , massive support for service and parts behind them enabled them to achieve the number one status Land Rover have struggled ever since , getting parts for LR in Africa now is a pain in the assss ,Ineos/ LR would be better cutting their cloth and production to suit the Chelsea tractor market ....they have no chance of attacking the real 4 x 4 market in terms of volume sales IMHO

 

[Andyk]

Because they look cool in an urban environment
View attachment 112233

I'd think the percentage of 4x4s used off road is incredibly low

LR builds status cars these days

Looks fantastic.