Very interesting stuff Froddy. What allows me to sleep at night is the long term position and most of my investing is based on that. If the underlying strength of the company is good and the news feed likely to be positive then you can dial out a lot of the short term stuff.GTVGEOFF,
At the moment the chart is looking short-term bearish (corrective) as it retreats from its over-bought condition, but there's always the chance that buyers will come in and push the price up again soon.
Price may test the anchored VWAP from the 16th March low which (as of today) sits at 6.28 but this will move upwards each day.
It may also test the previous support/resistance at c. 5.90.
Ideally, we'd like to see a successful test of 5.90 to confirm that what was once resistance is now support, but price may simply bounce off the VWAP and then rebound before it gets there; or, of course, it may fail to hold both and fall further - we just don't know.
Two other ways to approach it are to look for a momentum shift to the upside, or a candlestick reversal pattern. I'll keep an eye on all of these and let you know if I spot anything.
One thing I can't do is guarantee that you will make any money!
I just can't get my head round the recent Tesla stock price increase to levels getting towards silly levels again. The numbers just seem odd to me. Here is a recent chart of the top 10 car companies:
View attachment 68521
Tesla said it had delivered more than 367,500 cars last year - up 50% from 2018. Volkswagen delivered almost 11 million vehicles last year, while Toyota sold more than 9 million in the first 11 months of 2019. Tesla has also never made an annual profit. Even if you factor in that an average Tesla might cost 3 or 4 times the cost of an average VW or Toyota. It still doesn't remotely stack up. Am I missing something? Why is Tesla worth $100bn?
Tesla generated $24.6 billion in revenue in 2019 but still didn’t turn an annual profit — in fact, it lost $862 million in 2019. That that was better than the $1 billion loss the company posted in 2018. The company pulled down a $105 million profit in the fourth quarter, though that was boosted by the sale of $133 million worth of regulatory credits to other automakers.
An average EV/EBITDA seems to be 10-15 but Tesla's is circa 65. With many US comments suggesting many S&P company's stock seems expensive even at current levels surely Tesla is really expensive. I had them on my radar if they hit 700 so it is certainly on my radar for a short position at beyond this point. If it hits 800 then I'm in.
Markets seem to be embracing reality over the last couple of days, will this reverse the trend.Gilead CEO live on CNBC just now. Will he talk Remdesivir up?
Welcome back, where have you been?Wattie there is more to life than ZeroHedge
The FT had a great article yesterday about how central banks can print/monetise as much as they want but that addresses firms' "liqudity" but there is no way to address "solvency" which we are entering. Hertz, Virgin, et al. For they the bell tolls.
On balance, I don't think we're going down again ... just yet.Markets seem to be embracing reality over the last couple of days, will this reverse the trend.
Gilead gets emergency FDA authorization for remdesivir to treat coronavirus, Trump says from CNBC.com
I totally agree with you, and I'm talking very short-term (days or weeks) when I say the conditions aren't quite right for an immediate downward move. Whilst you were responding, I was editing, and I added this (theoretical) chart:I don't see how this bubble won't burst or at least deflate massively. The return to a reasonable economy is dependent on people spending. How will this happen with so much unemployment and weak, failing or failed businesses?
The US will have likely unemployment of way over 10% and it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the issues that this hits almost 1930 depression levels of near 25%
No amount of money printing can fix this as by its nature it is surely inflationary so exacerbates the problem further.
Everyone seems to have lost the word and understanding of fundamentals. Simple effective liquid profitable business. Not debt ridden growth dependent potential businesses that never ever actually deliver in real terms.
Surely Tesla is one of the biggest that might fall or need to be bailed out or propped up. The business valuation is absurd and its ability to burn cash when sales faulter (which they will) is epic.
Nailed it as far as I’m concerned.I don't see how this bubble won't burst or at least deflate massively. The return to a reasonable economy is dependent on people spending. How will this happen with so much unemployment and weak, failing or failed businesses?
The US will have likely unemployment of way over 10% and it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the issues that this hits almost 1930 depression levels of near 25%
No amount of money printing can fix this as by its nature it is surely inflationary so exacerbates the problem further.
Everyone seems to have lost the word and understanding of fundamentals. Simple effective liquid profitable business. Not debt ridden growth dependent potential businesses that never ever actually deliver in real terms.
Surely Tesla is one of the biggest that might fall or need to be bailed out or propped up. The business valuation is absurd and its ability to burn cash when sales faulter (which they will) is epic.
Understood and agreed. Seems to have been a recent false recovery based.on not much. I can see a few light ups and downs for a few weeks maybe months. Maybe as the summer ends and reality hits home then maybe the expected will start to play out.I totally agree with you, and I'm talking very short-term (days or weeks) when I say the conditions aren't quite right for an immediate downward move. Whilst you were responding, I was editing, and I added this (theoretical) chart:
It's my fault for not making that clear - apologies ...
The market won't reverse until the (short) crowd capitulates and goes long: we're not quite there yet, but it won't be long ...Is this the reason stocks recovered their losses and eeked out a small gain......the market expects a lot of this to manipulate it.
U.S. Treasury expects to borrow record $3 trillion in second quarter
The U.S. Treasury Department on Monday said it plans to borrow nearly $3 trillion in the second quarter of 2020 - a record for any quarter - as the federal government contends with the impact of the coronavirus.www.nasdaq.com
Here's how it works:The market won't reverse until the (short) crowd capitulates and goes long: we're not quite there yet, but it won't be long ...