Are you worried yet.

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Wack61

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8,797
When this is all over a lot of people at the top will have made a fortune while many will have no jobs to go back to , the 80% is just stringing out the inevitable for many people.

I've found lockdown quite easy TBH , I'm happy in my own company , the house is big enough for everybody to be alone should they want to be , I've had some work so have managed to get out a few times , if my kids had been small and I still had a mortgage things would've been very different , I can't imagine what it's like living in a tower block somewhere.
 

mjheathcote

Centenary Club
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9,038
When I hear the daily death figures it appears constantly high to me, and in no way low enough for any relaxation in social distancing.
I just fear any relaxation will result in the R value going above 1.
 

iainw

Member
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3,386
Anyone else smelling a whiff of ramped up nothingburger here? Seems now that 59% of dead people were in care homes. Starting to think that we ramped up on treating the wrong part of the population?
Back to work everybody? Overhyped sensationlist nothing to see here going on?
Just asking.
Why don’t you go and volunteer to go and work in the local respiratory assessment unit to visit the patients dying alone who aren’t allowed visitors - I am sure they could do with some company and the staff could do with a morale boost.
 

Wattie

Member
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8,640
Thank god the majority of people out there think like you. I have really tried not to come back to read on the forum much after reading the comments of a handful of members. But even tonight there are a couple of literally jaw dropping ones. Glad to hear the majority have escaped personal tragedy - I hope the same goes for phases 2 and 3. I am just looking forward to the car dealerships opening again so I can go for escapism. Stay safe all...
Not looking good for that covid Fezza discount Iain!
 

Phil the Brit

Member
Messages
1,499
I think I might
Why don’t you go and volunteer to go and work in the local respiratory assessment unit to visit the patients dying alone who aren’t allowed visitors - I am sure they could do with some company and the staff could do with a morale boost.

I assume that is sarcasm.
Time will tell. When people like top scientists don't think lockdown is important, (the same guy by the way who said 250.000 were going to die in UK) then why should I?
Just asking.
 

lozcb

Member
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12,568
I think I might


I assume that is sarcasm.
Time will tell. When people like top scientists don't think lockdown is important, (the same guy by the way who said 250.000 were going to die in UK) then why should I?
Just asking.
Not by any means defending what Neil Ferguson has done ,but I think as fella,s we have all been guilty of letting the lower regions rule the upper regions at some stage on our lives , just saying
 

Phil the Brit

Member
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1,499
I now wonder that if we all don't go back to work and start enjoying a "normal" life soon we are going to be swamped in this country with deaths from other things other than coronavirus.
Death from for example suicide, cancer and other diseases going untreated, alcoholism etc, etc.....it goes on.
Who gets the blame for all the over riding number of people that we now are starting to learn that have died in care homes? I am really starting to believe we put too much effort into protecting the wrong people. It is perhaps they, the care home people and their carers who needed the Governments help.
The answer of course is Neil Ferguson and his other "experts" who have been paid megabucks to come up with the wrong answers.
The Government have consistantly said they have followed the experts advice all along so no blame can surely be attached to them?
 

Phil the Brit

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Not by any means defending what Neil Ferguson has done ,but I think as fella,s we have all been guilty of letting the lower regions rule the upper regions at some stage on our lives , just saying

He has hands and access to pornographic websites..............deal with it.
 

Alexpie

Member
Messages
172
To be honest, given Neil Ferguson and his teams predictions for previous epidemics, I am surprised their model for COVID was given any credence whatsoever. Some of his previous predictions : (Source)

Article said:
In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
Article said:
In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.


In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.
Article said:
In 2001 the Imperial team produced modelling on foot and mouth disease that suggested that animals in neighbouring farms should be culled, even if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government policy and led to the total culling of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs – with a cost to the UK economy estimated at £10 billion.


It has been claimed by experts such as Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, that Ferguson’s modelling on foot and mouth was ‘severely flawed’ and made a ‘serious error’ by ‘ignoring the species composition of farms,’ and the fact that the disease spread faster between different species.
Article said:
In 2002, Ferguson predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a sheep epidemic as well. In the UK, there have only been 177 deaths from BSE.
Article said:
Ferguson’s disease modelling for Covid-19 has been criticised by experts such as John Ioannidis, professor in disease prevention at Stanford University, who has said that: ‘The Imperial College study has been done by a highly competent team of modellers. However, some of the major assumptions and estimates that are built in the calculations seem to be substantially inflated.’
Article said:
On 22 March, Ferguson said that Imperial College London’s model of the Covid-19 disease is based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code, that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.


And when they applied the model used by his team for COVID to sweden: (Source)
Article said:
“the current Swedish public-health strategy will result in a peak intensive-care load in May that exceeds pre-pandemic capacity by over 40-fold, with a median mortality of 96,000 (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000)” being realized by the end of June.
(Not to draw an international comparison as that's like comparing apples to oranges, but to show the difference in what was modelled and what we are seeing there.)

The Oxford COVID model seems somewhat more realistic, but almost idealistic. I'd guess it will end up somewhere in the middle of the two.

Based on that and other things, I'd lean towards following what healthcare workers who are actually dealing with this are telling us rather than people like Dr. Ferguson.
 

Phil the Brit

Member
Messages
1,499
This video keeps getting taken down off social media. 30 minutes long and a thought inspiring video by a virologist.


 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
This video keeps getting taken down off social media. 30 minutes long and a thought inspiring video by a virologist.


Interesting, I was aware of this a days ago. Fauci......makes you wonder.
Big Pharma- they’d never do anything wrong, would they?
Look up patents associated with him. Associated Complaints.
Funny how there’s nothing online re his wealth.
Us not interested in contributing to the global vaccine cure.......does someone want it all.
No smoke without fire.....or ********.
 

iainw

Member
Messages
3,386
I think I might


I assume that is sarcasm.
Time will tell. When people like top scientists don't think lockdown is important, (the same guy by the way who said 250.000 were going to die in UK) then why should I?
Just asking.
Not sarcasm at all. These people feel very alone and would love some company to tell them everything is going to be ok. I agree with you re the scientist. He was wrong anyway as the death rate would have been 550,000 ish. Having an affair with a married women during lockdown isn’t the smartest thing. And he paid for it with his job. It’s always been about what level of personal risk one is willing to take. Problem is - humanity is intrinsically selfish- and they can’t comprehend or care about ‘little risks’ will add up over a national global scale. What I would say - is don’t say one thing and do another. This does for all of us. You clearly are worried and think it’s a risk for you and loved ones- otherwise you would be volunteering to help I presume. Just saying.
 

Phil the Brit

Member
Messages
1,499
To be honest, given Neil Ferguson and his teams predictions for previous epidemics, I am surprised their model for COVID was given any credence whatsoever. Some of his previous predictions : (Source)









And when they applied the model used by his team for COVID to sweden: (Source)

(Not to draw an international comparison as that's like comparing apples to oranges, but to show the difference in what was modelled and what we are seeing there.)

The Oxford COVID model seems somewhat more realistic, but almost idealistic. I'd guess it will end up somewhere in the middle of the two.

Based on that and other things, I'd lean towards following what healthcare workers who are actually dealing with this are telling us rather than people like Dr. Ferguson.
Not sarcasm at all. These people feel very alone and would love some company to tell them everything is going to be ok. I agree with you re the scientist. He was wrong anyway as the death rate would have been 550,000 ish. Having an affair with a married women during lockdown isn’t the smartest thing. And he paid for it with his job. It’s always been about what level of personal risk one is willing to take. Problem is - humanity is intrinsically selfish- and they can’t comprehend or care about ‘little risks’ will add up over a national global scale. What I would say - is don’t say one thing and do another. This does for all of us. You clearly are worried and think it’s a risk for you and loved ones- otherwise you would be volunteering to help I presume. Just saying.

Sorry Iainw but I don't believe that ordinary people like me can go to a intensive care ward with dying coronavirus people in it to give company to them when their relatives or any visitors are not allowed to. Please show evidence of this. I just don't believe you and call BS.
 

iainw

Member
Messages
3,386
I now wonder that if we all don't go back to work and start enjoying a "normal" life soon we are going to be swamped in this country with deaths from other things other than coronavirus.
Death from for example suicide, cancer and other diseases going untreated, alcoholism etc, etc.....it goes on.
Who gets the blame for all the over riding number of people that we now are starting to learn that have died in care homes? I am really starting to believe we put too much effort into protecting the wrong people. It is perhaps they, the care home people and their carers who needed the Governments help.
The answer of course is Neil Ferguson and his other "experts" who have been paid megabucks to come up with the wrong answers.
The Government have consistantly said they have followed the experts advice all along so no blame can surely be attached to them?
There is a definite discussion in here. There are lots of knock on effects of this lockdown and reduced healthcare for non Covid patients. Agree the government will take no blame as they have advisors - even if they ignore them they can blame them! It’s a tricky balance. But there is little doubt Germany have nailed it and we have been ****.
 

iainw

Member
Messages
3,386
Sorry Iainw but I don't believe that ordinary people like me can go to a intensive care ward with dying coronavirus people in it to give company to them when their relatives or any visitors are not allowed to. Please show evidence of this. I just don't believe you and call BS.
Not as a visitor, as a volunteer. They government signed up over 750,000 but hardly any were called on. They could have helped so much with delivering essential medicines and foods etc. They don’t have to sit on ITu but could be out and about and help families etc
 

Phil the Brit

Member
Messages
1,499
Not as a visitor, as a volunteer. They government signed up over 750,000 but hardly any were called on. They could have helped so much with delivering essential medicines and foods etc. They don’t have to sit on ITu but could be out and about and help families etc

Your words were.....................Why don’t you go and volunteer to go and work in the local respiratory assessment unit to visit the patients dying alone who aren’t allowed visitors

Those words are why I assumed you were being sarcastic. You are now pulling back from that because I called BS on you.
You don't always say the smartest things, I guess neither do I sometimes.
 

lozcb

Member
Messages
12,568
This video keeps getting taken down off social media. 30 minutes long and a thought inspiring video by a virologist.


Interesting, I was aware of this a days ago. Fauci......makes you wonder.
Big Pharma- they’d never do anything wrong, would they?
Look up patents associated with him. Associated Complaints.
Funny how there’s nothing online re his wealth.
Us not interested in contributing to the global vaccine cure.......does someone want it all.
No smoke without fire.....or ****.


One of the reasons why its so important to check the source and check out who is doing all the funding ......................there's a rather large mountain of coffee to be smelt out there , as a few of us have been saying , and yes I have stood up from the very beginning as a sceptic of this , not the seriousness of Covid , but the intentions behind it and where it originated and for what overall purpose , nigh on a million people died in Rwanda and the world dint bat an eyelid , pol pot killed nearly 2 million and the world didnt bat an eyelid
 
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