Brexit!

[NickP]

Yes, and if the pound drops in value it will cost us more to buy imports and we'll get inflation!

And you think EU countries will let our businesses compete with theirs when ours face laxer regulation?!

We may be the 5th largest economy, but that won't be for ever. In 50 years, outside the EU, the English PM won't get their calls answered by their Chinese, Indian or Brazilian counterparts. We will not have a seat at the important negotiating tables.

We might survive outside the EU, but we might be worse off...

I don't think the EU is perfect - what government/bureacracy is? - but I'm just not optimistic about the alternatives.

I think the problem is that we have no say in EU matters, everything we oppose we get out voted, at least with our clowns we can change them every 5 years. I'm happy to take the benefits of the EU as a trade organisation but that isn't what it is at all anymore.

 

[m1980k]

The problem is that free trade really needs freedom of labour movement, tax harmonisation, regulatory/legal harmonisation (and maybe currency union - although I'm no fan of that, even though it could have been better managed)... Otherwise the coutry with lower taxes, weaker labour laws and less regulation will do very nicely and the everyone else will get unemployment!

 

[steamer]

I don't think the EU is perfect - what government/bureacracy is? - but I'm just not optimistic about the alternatives.

This is the key point for most of the populaton I would say at the moment. No one really likes what we have but the fear of what we might end up with is why I think the country will vote to stay as we are.

I really don't think anyones points on EU immigration are racist. I think people just think that our public sector and infrastrcuture struggle to cope with the population we have.

 

[greeny12]

The problem is that free trade really needs freedom of labour movement, tax harmonisation, regulatory/legal harmonisation (and maybe currency union - although I'm no fan of that, even though it could have been better managed)... Otherwise the coutry with lower taxes, weaker labour laws and less regulation will do very nicely and the everyone else will get unemployment!

Not sure I agree entirely. We trade perfectly happily with the US - in fact, unlike the EU we actually have a trade surplus there. Free trade needs free trade agreements, anything else is window-dressing. These can be, and are, negotiated outside of supranational political projects such as the EU, usually under the auspices of the WTO. And it'll be a cold day in **** when our European 'partners' give up all that lovely trade surplus out of some sort of Brexit spite.

 

[m1980k]

I'm not accusing anyone specific on here of being racist. But there are people who want us to leave the EU because they think it will stop bloody foreigners coming over here. They miss the old days where you could call a **** a ****, beat up your wife then blame the Irish. The press also love a scapegoat and "ze Germans" and Romanian scroungers are perfect for that.

I truly believe that we don't have a choice - accept immigration or settle for economic stagnation. In the 'good' old days, you could build an empire by enslaving the local brown people. Now that option is no longer available. You need immigration. I know it's easy to look around and think to yourself: I can't get a doctor's appointment, I'm stuck in a traffic jam, I can't get my kid in to a decent school - the country is full. But that is a fallacy. By preventing immigration, you'll have fewer doctors, nurses, cleaners, people to build and maintain schools and hospitals and roads, fewer people to provide childcare for local people doing more skilled jobs. Fewer entrepeneurs and people desperate to work hard and build a better life for their children.

What you need is a decent goverment to allocate resources to infrastructure and public services. Not a bunch of opportunist jokers who give tax breaks to whoever will help them win the next election. And leaving the EU isn't going to improve that situation!

 

[TridentTested]

Not sure I agree entirely. We trade perfectly happily with the US - in fact, unlike the EU we actually have a trade surplus there. Free trade needs free trade agreements, anything else is window-dressing. These can be, and are, negotiated outside of supranational political projects such as the EU, usually under the auspices of the WTO. And it'll be a cold day in **** when our European 'partners' give up all that lovely trade surplus out of some sort of Brexit spite.

I'm sure BMW will be pleased to continue selling us their soot-chuckers even if we are outside the EU, they will fall back on the WTO agreements to do so, but I work in the service sector - which is currently a massive UK invisible export. My biggest project at the moment happens to be for a Paris headquartered multi-national. Do you think the French authorities would allow my company trade in France post schism? Not on your nelly, like Drew's example above, they will insist we establish a French office and employ French staff. It would kill our exporting service sector.

 

[m1980k]

Not sure I agree entirely. We trade perfectly happily with the US - in fact, unlike the EU we actually have a trade surplus there. Free trade needs free trade agreements, anything else is window-dressing. These can be, and are, negotiated outside of supranational political projects such as the EU, usually under the auspices of the WTO. And it'll be a cold day in **** when our European 'partners' give up all that lovely trade surplus out of some sort of Brexit spite.

Yes, you can cherry pick the example of the US. Or I can cherry pick the example of Chinese steel being dumped on the market and devastating what's left of that industry in the UK. A lot of people in the US lost their jobs when factories moved over the border into Mexico. And then Mexicans lost their jobs when the factories moved to Asia.

 

[greeny12]

Do you think the French authorities would allow my company trade in France post schism?

They will have to, if they want to maintain the UK among their top five global trade surpluses (alongside Hong Kong, UAE, Singapore and Qatar). France is in no position to start cutting off its economic nose to spite its face...

There's far, far too much scaremongering going on about trade right now, IMHO.

 

[m1980k]

They will have to, if they want to maintain the UK among their top five global trade surpluses (alongside Hong Kong, UAE, Singapore and Qatar). France is in no position to start cutting off its economic nose to spite its face...

There's far, far too much scaremongering going on about trade right now, IMHO.

I don't completely disagree with you.. I just don't see the point of leaving. If we do leave, we'll trade with the EU on the same terms that we do now. I really think that the EU fulfils the role of a mythical bogeyman. People aren't happy with the situation in this country and they've found a scapegoat. Something similar happening in the US with support for Donald Trump and his guff about how he'll make America great again.

What made America great? Immigration. Millions of people moving to that country to make a better life for themselves.

 

[TridentTested]

They will have to, if they want to maintain the UK among their top five global trade surpluses (alongside Hong Kong, UAE, Singapore and Qatar). France is in no position to start cutting off its economic nose to spite its face...

There's far, far too much scaremongering going on about trade right now, IMHO.

I disagree. They will probably accept British made Land Rover Jaguars as a bilateral agreement to allow them sell PSAs and Renaults to us but their architecture and design industry is laughable when compared to our world class industry so they will have no incentive to enter a bilateral agreement on exchange of architectural services.

 

[conaero]

I beleive the other powerhouses in Europe want out, I know the Germans and Greeks do, probably the French, Spanish and Italians too.

Do you think they would stop trading with us, no. I think it's is possible that this would encourage these nations to strengthen trade to expedite their own exit.

 

[drewf]

The problem is that free trade really needs freedom of labour movement, tax harmonisation, regulatory/legal harmonisation (and maybe currency union - although I'm no fan of that, even though it could have been better managed)... Otherwise the coutry with lower taxes, weaker labour laws and less regulation will do very nicely and the everyone else will get unemployment!

I don't believe this has proven to be the case in the EU; far from it. Greece or Portugal for example - have had lower taxes, weaker labour laws and less regulation enforced, but I believe they haven't done nicely for themselves at all. On the other hand, Germany has relatively high taxes, very strong labour laws and loves regulation.

Free trade doesn't rely on or require any of the points you mention above.

 

[m1980k]

I don't believe this has proven to be the case in the EU; far from it. Greece or Portugal for example - have had lower taxes, weaker labour laws and less regulation enforced, but I believe they haven't done nicely for themselves at all. On the other hand, Germany has relatively high taxes, very strong labour laws and loves regulation.

Free trade doesn't rely on or require any of the points you mention above.

Greece is actually the perfect example of why closer integration is needed.

Greece had no need to compete in export markets. They could borrow in Euros at a very low interest rate (helped by questionable government accounting) and then give the money to public sector workers. Why would you work hard to buy a BMW when you could just falsify your income and take out a loan guaranteed by your brother to buy one?

A common fiscal policy would stop one country exploiting the explicit or implicit guarantees of another country. And yes, you could argue that European monetary union caused this problem but it was monetary union without fiscal union that did it.

Greece is not an example of a country that provided a good environment for competitive businesses. Corruption and tax evasion will choke entrepreneurs and remove incentives to innovate or become more efficient. Germany "unfairly" competed with Greece by properly managing its economy!

Ireland and Luxembourg are great examples of what happens when tax rates within a free trade area aren't harmonised - smart business can avoid paying tax!

 

[drewf]

Going to have to disagree there - Greece is the perfect example of why closer integration isn't needed. Don't forget, the In/Out question is only posed from the point of view of what would be best for the UK. Doesn't matter how other countries have performed or been f*cked-over in the last few decades; there are massive differences between the cultures, economies, and outlook for each country in Europe. Chaining them together to attempt to have all act under one fiscal EuroState will never work, as I believe the half-way attempt made by the EuroCurrency zone has clearly shown. Since it's not possible to link the divergent economies, all that would happen would be the even swifter demise of the poorer states.

There are clearly benefits and drawbacks to being part of the system, but looking for some utopian ideal is in my opinion a waste of time.

 

[m1980k]

I think the "out" camp are the utopians. They believe that the EU has somehow been holdings us back and we'll rise like a phoenix once we're out. So we'll be better off as a small, isolated nation when it comes to trade negotiations? Like Switzerland, which used to have a competitive advantage from banking secrecy until bigger nations realised that they could just put an end to that! This country doesn't 'do' industrial policy - we elect spineless, cynical governments who pump up house prices and create temporary, illusory, unsustainable wealth. Young people are now spending all their money on renting or saving for a house deposit when they should be spending that money on goods, services, education or investments. Cameron doesn't have the guts to reform the housing market so why would he make the changes required to make this a great trading nation? We are a lot better at buying things than making them, which is why we have a trade deficit.

Being out of the EU will probably be like being in, but just a bit (or maybe a lot) worse.

 

[jluis]

Ireland and Luxembourg are great examples of what happens when tax rates within a free trade area aren't harmonised - smart business can avoid paying tax!

My payslip disagrees with you!

 

[Steve GS]

All the ifs buts and maybe. What happened to adventure. And just maybe it will make this once great nation to get up of its **** and start creating and making again.

 

[rockits]

Just saw this thread & caught up on the 14 pages

Definitely out of me now. I've had enough. I started a small business 14 years ago from nothing, worked my knackers off and have been given nothing. Help from the govt...that is a laugh. Then we get hit as an employer by a zillion different rules & regs via Brussels.

Big organisations just don't work...fact. The NHS...break it up...the banks...break em up. The EU...break it up. These beasts are far too big, complex and innefficient and just don't work. Why would they. Keep it simple and smaller. We have got far too big, far tool complex and one size just doesn't fit all.

Big isn't always beautiful. Economies of scale don't always work beyond a certain size. Let's take control back and decide our own future. The cultural and economics differences betweeen all member EU states are just too great. It doesn't work.

 

[rockits]

Anyone it does work for is doing well and obviously they want to keep it that way. That is half the problem.

 

[alfatwo]

All the ifs buts and maybe. What happened to adventure. And just maybe it will make this once great nation to get up of its **** and start creating and making again.

Steve, were going to leave just you wait and see...and that's from someone who spends half of the year in Europe!

Dave