Brexit Deal

[Saigon]

So the country with one of the highest unemployment rates for young people that is at risk of two regions wanting to break free and has lots of non Spanish speakers clinging to the southern coast is more desirable than a stable country with one of the longest records of democratic, low risk existence of any in the western world? Interesting!

Of course she will have a UK pension and will get at least a basic state pension as well in due course. That's her choice and best of luck with going for what she wants but of no relevance to 99% of the UK population.

Apart from that she will be limited to three months in the country unless she takes up Spanish residency, which will in fact cost her a fortune if she does not do so before the U K becomes a third world country as far as Spain is concerned in 2021.

 

[rivarama]

no relevance to 99% of the UK population.

Never said there was... Just amazed someone leaps into the unknown in the middle of a double shitshow

 

[Oneball]

UK has two regions wanting to break free, or even three...

Just think how much more money we’d have for the NHS if we weren’t paying benefits for Rab C Nesbitt and Dylan Jones.

 

[spkennyuk]

Personally after some nice red wine I was thinking Maggie was looking rather hot

I didnt think there was enough wine in France to have that effect !

 

[steve3200]

Sorry chaps, bit wound up!

don't apologize to those Brexit nutcases who voted to leave

 

[philw696]

I didnt think there was enough wine in France to have that effect !

Must just be me and @Boris J that wanted to be in a threesome with her then ?
She had to be wearing that dress though first

 

[Wattie]

don't apologize to those Brexit nutcases who voted to leave

Blue touch paper lit

 

[bigbob]

Never said there was... Just amazed someone leaps into the unknown in the middle of a double shitshow

Agree but so many of my friends were convinced by the BBC et al that Brexit would blow the UK economy up that they were keen to leave to protect their intellectual incompetence. Of course CV19 makes it all very confusing must of them now don’t know what to do. I’d love to know what her logic was and what she intends to do when she gets there.

 

[bigbob]

UK has two regions wanting to break free, or even three...

I know I live in one of them! However we have a better way of resolving division, possibly due to not having recently had a revolution, long serving brutal dictator (they always are) or having issued arrest warrants for politicians in regional assemblies.

The UK is one of the safest and fairest countries in the world and I think a lot of people need to remember that when they are looking over the fence at someone else’s lawn.

 

[rivarama]

Agree but so many of my friends were convinced by the BBC et al that Brexit would blow the UK economy up that they were keen to leave to protect their intellectual incompetence. Of course CV19 makes it all very confusing must of them now don’t know what to do. I’d love to know what her logic was and what she intends to do when she gets there.

Well Brexit is set to cost my business £120m per annum if we get to WTO terms... obviously better if we get a deal, our VP of tax tells me !
I can tell you that will definitely prevent from growing and hiring as we were hoping we would... so the BBC wasn’t completely wrong.

 

[rivarama]

The UK is one of the safest and fairest countries in the world

I am sure Greece would say the same things... afterall there are over 240 countries in this world, and a good 2/3rd of that number aren’t that safe

 

[spkennyuk]

Well Brexit is set to cost my business £120m per annum if we get to WTO terms... obviously better if we get a deal, our VP of tax tells me !
I can tell you that will definitely prevent from growing and hiring as we were hoping we would... so the BBC wasn’t completely wrong.

Interesting. So where does the VP of tax think the increased costs of 2.4 million a week are coming from ?

Im assuming then he no plan to pass any of the increased costs on to the end user ?

Is the 120 million year 1 costs with wto agreement or ongoing year on year.

Just interested to hear what the headline figure is comprised of and how the figure was arrived at considering how much is unknown at the moment and how much is being guessed at.

 

[allandwf]

Never said there was... Just amazed someone leaps into the unknown in the middle of a double shitshow

You could say it's an unknown here too, so what's the difference?

 

[rivarama]

Interesting. So where does the VP of tax think the increased costs of 2.4 million a week are coming from ?

Im assuming then he no plan to pass any of the increased costs on to the end user ?

Is the 120 million year 1 costs with wto agreement or ongoing year on year.

Just interested to hear what the headline figure is comprised of and how the figure was arrived at considering how much is unknown at the moment and how much is being guessed at.

The majority of that amount is based on how much goods we import from EU, that would be charged duty/tax under WTO. The rest is based on good imported from outside the EU, getting a reduced duty/ tax rate vs WTO being part of EU.

As to passing it down to the consumer, I am sure some of it will, although the industry is v competitive and pricing transparent, so customers might vote w their feet - but even if we are passing it on, the nation as a whole gets a hit. So a negative sum game.

That cost will be on going unless we decide to stop importing and shrink our business. I am sure you’re about to tell me we could just make that in the UK (and hence suppress the need for import), but without providing you with privileged info (listed company), you will just have to trust me when I tell you it is very unlikely and def impossible to shift as much in the short term.

What I can assure you is that a lot of our competitors will go bust - as they are barely making money today. Again a negative sum game that will create a lot of job losses.

Politically it’s easy though as Boris now has the perfect scape goat to blame this on... Covid !

 

[rivarama]

You could say it's an unknown here too, so what's the difference?

Logically easy to change your mind AFTER we know the terms. How many brits are in Europe now and left unable to move back to the UK as they can’t afford to buy in the UK anymore?
I wish her good luck though, I would have waited 6months if I were her.

 

[philw696]

I wish everyone Good Luck but for me I'm staying put in my little bit of France which I totally adore.

 

[spkennyuk]

The majority of that amount is based on how much goods we import from EU, that would be charged duty/tax under WTO. The rest is based on good imported from outside the EU, getting a reduced duty/ tax rate vs WTO being part of EU.

As to passing it down to the consumer, I am sure some of it will, although the industry is v competitive and pricing transparent, so customers might vote w their feet - but even if we are passing it on, the nation as a whole gets a hit. So a negative sum game.

That cost will be on going unless we decide to stop importing and shrink our business. I am sure you’re about to tell me we could just make that in the UK (and hence suppress the need for import), but without providing you with privileged info (listed company), you will just have to trust me when I tell you it is very unlikely and def impossible to shift as much in the short term.

What I can assure you is that a lot of our competitors will go bust - as they are barely making money today. Again a negative sum game that will create a lot of job losses.

Politically it’s easy though as Boris now has the perfect scape goat to blame this on... Covid !

Nope im not going to suggest you source from the UK. Having spent 25 plus years in freight forwarding ive spent a large part of my working life helping clients to do just the opposite. I was just curious as to how the tax vp was coming up with the figures he is quoting.

In the event of a no deal brexit the duty tariff rate for goods from the EU will be set for upto 12 months under the temporary tariff rates. Problem is that those rate will not be published until after a no deal Brexit. So we just do not know what the duty rate for EU imported goods will be if there is at all a duty rate to be applied. Vat outlay will be the same regardless.

The temporary duty rates will apply for upto 12 months. If no agreement is made between individual countries
Then it will revert to WTO rates. Up to that point im sure your product sourcing team would be looking at sourcing from countries with preferential rate agreements in place under GSP for example or a country that implements a trade agreement with us within the 12 month time frame of temp tariffs.

Thats the reason i was asking where he/she is getting his 120 million figures from as the temp duty rates have not been published yet so what is he/she using for his/her calculations.

 

[2b1ask1]

All very interesting.

 

[rivarama]

Nope im not going to suggest you source from the UK. Having spent 25 plus years in freight forwarding ive spent a large part of my working life helping clients to do just the opposite. I was just curious as to how the tax vp was coming up with the figures he is quoting.

In the event of a no deal brexit the duty tariff rate for goods from the EU will be set for upto 12 months under the temporary tariff rates. Problem is that those rate will not be published until after a no deal Brexit. So we just do not know what the duty rate for EU imported goods will be if there is at all a duty rate to be applied. Vat outlay will be the same regardless.

The temporary duty rates will apply for upto 12 months. If no agreement is made between individual countries
Then it will revert to WTO rates. Up to that point im sure your product sourcing team would be looking at sourcing from countries with preferential rate agreements in place under GSP for example or a country that implements a trade agreement with us within the 12 month time frame of temp tariffs.

Thats the reason i was asking where he/she is getting his 120 million figures from as the temp duty rates have not been published yet so what is he/she using for his calculations.

Without wanting to enter into an argument, I would point out that I had rightly mentioned an amount “up to” not a final figure. I hope you will agree that in the best possible scenario we will be no better off than today; and in every other case we will be worse off.
What you are referring to is just timing. Kicking the can down the road by another 12months isn’t changing the story. Again, that’s unless Boris does bow in front of EU and accepts to give in some of the nego to keep a trad le free zone with Europe.

 

[Zep]

Without wanting to enter into an argument, I would point out that I had rightly mentioned an amount “up to” not a final figure. I hope you will agree that in the best possible scenario we will be no better off than today; and in every other case we will be worse off.
What you are referring to is just timing. Kicking the can down the road by another 12months isn’t changing the story. Again, that’s unless Boris does bow in front of EU and accepts to give in some of the nego to keep a trad le free zone with Europe.

You paint a picture that is very familiar to me from the work I am doing at the moment. The uncertainty is crippling as we usually plan years ahead and we are facing a situation where we don’t know our costs in 3 months time. I imagine you are like us, we have factories which aren’t moving so alternative sources are not an option even if the U.K. is the biggest market.

I voted remain based on this scenario, but have no desire to change the outcome. But would prefer to have more clarity. Simply removing tariffs for a short period has other consequences including a potential flood of cheap products from other sources due to WTO MFN rules. The number of potential outcomes and the variation between them is mind boggling, extremely challenging, and none are net positive. It is what it is I guess.