MR SNUGGLES GOES TO FUNKYTOWN or VLADIMIR'S SPECIAL sex change OPERATION

[midlifecrisis]

No doubt the Russians will also deny the recent uncovering of mass graves in the liberated settlements in the Kharkov Oblast.

 

[DLax69]

Since Her Majesty died several days ago, the Russian Government has issued a steady stream of
letters/ Facebook posts/what have you; expressing condolences / sympathy etc etc to the Royal Family
and the British people.
Now, that they realise that no invitation for Putin nor any other Russian official to attend, will be issued.
We are suddenly an immoral and corrupt country / government / etc etc
This from the regime who used a weapon of mass destruction (nerve agent) in Salisbury, four years ago
and who have refused to extradite those identified as carrying out the attack, despite their being named.
If we are immoral. What does that make the Russian regime that is filled with criminals and klepomaniacs?
Putin and his regime of psychotic criminals, have more faces than an onion has skins.

spot on, my friend.

 

[D Walker]

You notice that they've ensured that the communications tower behind them is in the centre of the picture.
So that everyone who knows the area, can't mistake where they are now.
Their kit, mostly looks pretty squared away too. Always a good sign.

There are probably few people on here who understand what you mean by
“Squared away”. I agree tho..you can see the clip of the state of a lot of the areas where Russians have been, and their kit generally looks in clip order.
Many twists and turns to come.
Like you tho I am a little fearful of where the Russian thinking may go if they are suddenly looking down a barrel sat in Crimea..
I think once Ukraine can get Himars close enough in Kherson they will be looking to hit that bridge Russia built to Crimea..that will then be those on Crimea fk’d for re supply apart from air and sea.

 

[UlstermanAbroad]

If I was a Russian soldier, I reckon I'd shoot my CO and catch the next bus home to whichever remote city I was conscripted from.
The Ukrainians have taken the initiative from the Russians and it's going to be exceptionally hard for the Russians to take it back.
To the non veterans amongst us. Taking and keeping the initiative is critical in warfare, because you can dictate where and how the fighting takes place and it forces your opponents onto the defensive.
It'll be exceptionally hard for the Russians to take it back, because they don't have control of the skies. This makes intelligence gathering exceptionally hard, as well as makes anywhere that you concentrate troops, vehicles or supplies, extremely vulnerable to attack.
For the Ukrainians to convince the Russians that they planned to counter attack in the south. Only to do it in the north is nothing short of amazing in the twenty-first century, when developed countries have so many means of gathering battlefield intelligence.
Doing to the Russians what the Russians did to the Ukrainians, in terms of MLRS and the U.S. equivalent, must be driving the Russians nuts. As evidenced by Putin's warning to the U.S. not to supply longer range missile systems. Not only was the warning a massive 'tell', but the way it was phrased was too. Putin equated it to the U.S. becoming directly involved. Which Putin knows NATO doesn't want to do. It's a redundant way to phrase the warning. The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to use every weapons system that NATO has supplied, so NATO no longer has to contemplate getting directly involved.
Apparently the truth about Russia's invasion is increasingly being discussed in the Russian media and public opinion is starting to shift perceptibly.
I realise that it sounds dramatic even mentioning WMDs. However, I would suspect that the Russians are fast coming to the conclusion, if they haven't concluded already, that the only way to stop Ukrainian forces, would be to use chemical weapons. I don't believe that Russian field commanders would use either chemical weapons or battlefield tactical nukes, because Russia is almost certainly facing regime change, in which case a future Russian government would likely be compelled to hand over any field commanders who used WMDs to the ICC.

 

[DLax69]

If I was a Russian soldier, I reckon I'd shoot my CO and catch the next bus home to whichever remote city I was conscripted from.
The Ukrainians have taken the initiative from the Russians and it's going to be exceptionally hard for the Russians to take it back.
To the non veterans amongst us. Taking and keeping the initiative is critical in warfare, because you can dictate where and how the fighting takes place and it forces your opponents onto the defensive.
It'll be exceptionally hard for the Russians to take it back, because they don't have control of the skies. This makes intelligence gathering exceptionally hard, as well as makes anywhere that you concentrate troops, vehicles or supplies, extremely vulnerable to attack.
For the Ukrainians to convince the Russians that they planned to counter attack in the south. Only to do it in the north is nothing short of amazing in the twenty-first century, when developed countries have so many means of gathering battlefield intelligence.
Doing to the Russians what the Russians did to the Ukrainians, in terms of MLRS and the U.S. equivalent, must be driving the Russians nuts. As evidenced by Putin's warning to the U.S. not to supply longer range missile systems. Not only was the warning a massive 'tell', but the way it was phrased was too. Putin equated it to the U.S. becoming directly involved. Which Putin knows NATO doesn't want to do. It's a redundant way to phrase the warning. The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to use every weapons system that NATO has supplied, so NATO no longer has to contemplate getting directly involved.
Apparently the truth about Russia's invasion is increasingly being discussed in the Russian media and public opinion is starting to shift perceptibly.
I realise that it sounds dramatic even mentioning WMDs. However, I would suspect that the Russians are fast coming to the conclusion, if they haven't concluded already, that the only way to stop Ukrainian forces, would be to use chemical weapons. I don't believe that Russian field commanders would use either chemical weapons or battlefield tactical nukes, because Russia is almost certainly facing regime change, in which case a future Russian government would likely be compelled to hand over any field commanders who used WMDs to the ICC.

Agree with all...and add that UKR is getting additional intel. RUS lacks two things, as well: technological and HUMINT sources on any sort of scale in the areas they have (ahem) annexed...and a level of dysfunction driven by the appearance that no one really wants to be the one to break the bad news to Vladdy.

 

[midlifecrisis]

I was reading earlier of lowly politicians in St Petersburg voicing their opinion of impeaching Putin. Clearly some Russians have guts and thankfully they are not on the front.

 

[midlifecrisis]

Ukrainian Rainbow

Ukrainian forces fire Himars rockets at Russian targets amid counter-offensive

Ukrainian forces fire Himars rockets at Russian targets amid counter-offensive.Subscribe to The Telegraph with our special offer: just £1 for 3 months. Start...

youtube.com

 

[D Walker]

Love the Russian way of moving the goalposts. If it all goes to plan Ukraine will trespassing on Sovereign Russian territory thereby justifying Russia being able to declare war and set in motion a mobilisation to bolster its war effort. Obviously all kitted out in 70s and 80s gear no doubt with gen 1 Ak47’s. Back to ww2 ussr tactics. You’ll run out of bullets before we run out of people.

 

[DLax69]

Love the Russian way of moving the goalposts. If it all goes to plan Ukraine will trespassing on Sovereign Russian territory thereby justifying Russia being able to declare war and set in motion a mobilisation to bolster its war effort. Obviously all kitted out in 70s and 80s gear no doubt with gen 1 Ak47’s. Back to ww2 ussr tactics. You’ll run out of bullets before we run out of people.

Funny how BOTH TIMES the Russians were fighting Nazis, too...

 

[mowlas]

Interesting analysis video about Putin’s potential psychology on Ukraine. If this is correct then it means a most dramatic, not pragmatic end game.

Why is Vladimir Putin so obsessed with Ukraine?

Guardian correspondent Luke Harding chronicles the key historical events that led to the invasion of Ukraine, from the Euromaidan protests to the annexation of Crimea

www.theguardian.com

It looks like the dramatic end game is now afoot. Is Mr Putin bluffing? Will he use tactical, low-yield nuclear weapons to warn off Ukraine and her supporters?

My hunch is that this is certainly the end game for Mr Putin himself.

 

[DLax69]

It looks like the dramatic end game is now afoot. Is Mr Putin bluffing? Will he use tactical, low-yield nuclear weapons to warn off Ukraine and her supporters?

My hunch is that this is certainly the end game for Mr Putin himself.

This doesn't end well. The question remains...for how many? But Vladdy is definitely on the list. Related but unrelated, anyone tracking the unrest in Iran? Maybe it will be contagious...

 

[mowlas]

Agreed it doesn’t end well because many more innocents likely to die for the end game, regardless of which road Mr Putin takes.

I do agree that he is finished. If he is bluffing and the West calls him on it, he will lose and be disgraced. If he is not bluffing, I think he may be taken out by his own side who have too much to lose.

Strength to those Iranian protesters but I fear it will lead to nothing. I don’t think the Russian people will realise that this is all for Putin and not for Russia - he’s still very popular.

 

[GeoffCapes]

There are probably few people on here who understand what you mean by
“Squared away”. I agree tho..you can see the clip of the state of a lot of the areas where Russians have been, and their kit generally looks in clip order.
Many twists and turns to come.
Like you tho I am a little fearful of where the Russian thinking may go if they are suddenly looking down a barrel sat in Crimea..
I think once Ukraine can get Himars close enough in Kherson they will be looking to hit that bridge Russia built to Crimea..that will then be those on Crimea fk’d for re supply apart from air and sea.

Sounds like Stalingrad all over again. This time the Russians are the baddies.

 

[DLax69]

Agreed it doesn’t end well because many more innocents likely to die for the end game, regardless of which road Mr Putin takes.

I do agree that he is finished. If he is bluffing and the West calls him on it, he will lose and be disgraced. If he is not bluffing, I think he may be taken out by his own side who have too much to lose.

Strength to those Iranian protesters but I fear it will lead to nothing. I don’t think the Russian people will realise that this is all for Putin and not for Russia - he’s still very popular.

There are folks inside Russia who disagree with much of what's going on. We are edging, I think, into tipping point territory. The question is, which way do things tip?

People become radicalized when things affect them personally. Having family members conscripted is one of those things. Having family members killed or disappeared is another...

The nutjob J6 people here see themselves as freedom fighters and True Patriots. But clearly those who speak up and out in Russia, Iran, Hong Kong, and other areas are to be commended, cheered on, and supported.

There's plenty of scholarly research on the last straw on an autocracy's back...i expect a slew of fresh peer-reviewed articles in the next 12 to 18 months...

 

[mowlas]

There are folks inside Russia who disagree with much of what's going on. We are edging, I think, into tipping point territory. The question is, which way do things tip?

People become radicalized when things affect them personally. Having family members conscripted is one of those things. Having family members killed or disappeared is another...

The nutjob J6 people here see themselves as freedom fighters and True Patriots. But clearly those who speak up and out in Russia, Iran, Hong Kong, and other areas are to be commended, cheered on, and supported.

There's plenty of scholarly research on the last straw on an autocracy's back...i expect a slew of fresh peer-reviewed articles in the next 12 to 18 months...

I hope you are right.

 

[midlifecrisis]

Don't panic people, Putain has requested the raising of more units from reservists but those units are numerically smaller than the regular forces already defeated.

Judging by the mess left behind retreating Russians, speaks even to me that they are a very disorganised army. Poorly trained in the basics of soldiery, poor discipline and poorly equipped and very low morale. They know that they shouldn't be there or want to be there.

Reading some reports that much of the recruitment is from poor areas of Russia not the middle class areas of Moscow or St Petersburg. Once recruitment starts here, questions will be asked more forcefully of Putain. In fact flights from those areas to other countries that do not require visas have booked out for the next few days. They're might not be anyone available to fight.

Personnel is one thing , but equipment will be lacking too, due to the losses in Ukraine and previous conflicts.

 

[DLax69]

I hope you are right.

Me, too...definitely no crystal ball. But time spent in Bosnia, Haiti, certain parts of the middle east, and other hotpsots have given me some front-row seats to the radicalization of the populace. And obviously the outcomes of those shifts aren't universally positive...or, even final outcomes.

 

[UlstermanAbroad]

To paraphrase a couple of analysts who know about 80-90% of what's happening militarily.
When the Ukrainians broke through the Russian front line in the north. They broke through
a weak point in the Russian front line defended by the Russian 1st Guards Army.
What, during the cold war, was regarded as the best of all Russian Armies.
In this case the 'Army' consisted, on paper at least, of an armoured (tank) division, plus two
mechanised rifle divisions (mounted infantry) and associated units like artillery, signals, engineers etc.
Apparently the Ukrainians went through the Russians like 'a knife through butter'.
A newly constituted Russian Army, called the 3rd Russian (something) Army was rushed into place as
a blocking force. Consisting mainly of mechanised infantry. Apparently they lasted a day on the front
line, before they also turned and fled.
So, many armoured vehicles, heavy artillery pieces and mounted missile launchers have been abandoned
by retreating Russians, because for two months before the Ukrainian counter-offensive started,
the Ukrainians hit infrastructure, support units and resupply dumps in the Russian rear. Effectively leaving
the front line units with only what they could carry in terms of fuel, food and any other consumables.
Russia, despite dwarfing Ukraine, has an extreme shortage of military age males and they do not allow
women in frontline units.
To create the 3rd Russian Army (see above) the conscription upper age barrier was abolished. So, males of
up to sixty years old were conscripted and the average age was something like forty years old. Contrast that
with the Ukrainians, whose average age in the military is around twenty. The 3rd Russian Army was told in training
that it was to be used, only in rear areas for logistics etc. Then they found themselves on the front line.
Effectively Russia has exhausted its supply of military age conscripts, because it has no plan to replace key
civilian, military age workers. Now it is reduced to recruiting from prisons. Though its suspected that this has
been going on for some time. Prisoners are receiving a week's training. Mainly on how to use the AK47/AKM etc
and are then sent to the front line.
The Russians in the south of Ukraine are better dug in. However, what that means in terms of fighting effectiveness
is outside my knowledge for the moment.
Ukraine is receiving all kinds of real time intelligence from its NATO and other backers. Mainly from the US and UK. NATO has also been effective in arming the Ukrainians. But the Ukrainians themselves have also been extremely effective in regenerating cold war era kit, that's largely been abandoned since 1990.
For example. in 1990 Ukraine had roughly 400 SU-14 "Fencer" medium ground attack supersonic bombers.
From this number, they kept twenty or so, operational and put another fifty in out door storage.
All Ukrainian SU-14s that were operational last Spring, were shot down by the Russians. Since then however,
the Ukrainians have been able to regenerate about twelve airframes and again have a front line squadron which has been s een on camera attacking Russian units. This is an astonishing achievement by the Ukrainians. It illustrates their motivation to use any and all means to defeat the Russians.
Have only just heard about Putin mentioning tactical nukes again. Not had time to read these comments.

 

[fphil]

I note this comes right after the Putin-Xi Jinping meeting at the SCO. I understand that China has now the possibility of weakening US and NATO because of Taiwan and so should help Russia, in the same way that US and NATO want to weaken Russia because of Europe and help Ukraine. Therefore, this billiards game is quite scary and is not about to end.

 

[DLax69]

True enough. But we've been here before. Multiple times. One of my favorites was when we built a bunch of corvettes (ships) for the Israelis to thank them for staying out of the Gulf War, because if they had joined in then Turkey was gonna pile on...and if Turkey had piled on, then...well, you get the picture.

It may be smart, or it may be dumb, but Biden unequivocally (though unilaterally) expanding NATO to include Taiwan (and yes, I know what I'm saying but if you think that China attacking Taiwan, and the US getting involved, doesn't drag the UK and others in, then...) may have been helpful in wedging a little daylight between Vladdy and Xi on the Ukraine issue. Especially since Russia will be no help to the Chinese if the poo ever hits the fan. As others have said, Russia is the second greatest military in Ukraine.